Psychological anchoring effect and cross section of cryptocurrency returns

This paper investigates whether investors’ anchoring bias affects cryptocurrency returns. We use the nearness to the 52-week high (Nearness52) as a proxy for anchoring behavior and document a significant positive association between Nearness52 and subsequent cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns. The relationship remains robust after controlling for standard return predictors and employing alternative econometric specifications. A value-weighted spread portfolio, cANCHOR, which goes long on cryptocurrencies with high Nearness52 and short on those with low Nearness52, generates an average return of around 130 basis points per week. Additional analyses help rule out competing explanations based on risk exposure or market frictions. Augmenting the benchmark three-factor model of Liu, Tsyvinski, and Wu (2019) with our cANCHOR factor yields a novel four-factor model that better explains cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns and outperforms alternative approaches proposed in the literature.