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Nueva actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Hurtado

    () (Banco de España)

  • Elena Fernández

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ortega

    () (Banco de España)

  • Alberto Urtasun

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

El Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España (MTBE) constituye una herramienta fundamental para la elaboración de proyecciones a medio plazo de la economía española y para la cuantificación de los posibles efectos de distintas medidas de política económica o de perturbaciones de diversa índole. Dentro del proceso de continua mejora de este instrumento, en los últimos meses se ha procedido a una remodelación sustancial del mismo. Los cambios introducidos son tanto de actualización de la estimación, ampliando la muestra de datos hasta finales de 2008, como metodológicos, y afectan a todas las facetas del modelo. Además, se han incorporado un conjunto de variables explicativas que aproximan los efectos de la confianza y de las restricciones crediticias sobre las decisiones de gasto, y que permiten analizar de forma adecuada el período más reciente de la economía española.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Hurtado & Elena Fernández & Eva Ortega & Alberto Urtasun, 2011. "Nueva actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Occasional Papers 1106, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1106
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/11/Fich/do1106.pdf
    File Function: First version, August 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ángel Estrada & José Luis Fernández & Esther Moral & Ana V. Regil, 2004. "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0413, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    2. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2010. "Spain in the Euro: a general equilibrium analysis," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 67-95, March.
    3. Yianos Kontopoulos & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Government Fragmentation and Fiscal Policy Outcomes: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 81-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    5. Eva Ortega & Eva Ferraz & Samuel Hurtado, 2007. "Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Boletín Económico, Banco de España;Boletín Económico Homepage, issue JUN, Junio.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    8. Esther Gordo & Coral García & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2008. "Una actualización de las funciones de exportación e importación de la economía española," Boletín Económico, Banco de España;Boletín Económico Homepage, issue DEC, Diciembre.
    9. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Ángel Estrada, 2006. "BEMOD: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy and the rest of the Euro area," Working Papers 0631, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. Ana Buisan & Esther Gordo, 1994. "Funciones de importación y exportación de la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 165-192, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spanish economy; macroeconometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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