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Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España

  • Eva Ortega

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Pablo Burriel

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • José Luis Fernández

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ferraz

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    ()

    (Banco de España)

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts published by the national statistical office, suggested that a reestimation of the model was due. This paper presents such reestimation with newer data (up to the end of 2005), and includes some modifications that were deemed necessary in certain equations. The quarterly model of the Bank of Spain keeps a similar structure to its previous version; it still is basically a demand-driven model. It is found that the Spanish economy shows, in general, higher sensitivity than in previous periods to changes in exogenous variables, especially in financial conditions. The new model reflects, too, changes in demographic trends, and presents an external sector less sentitive to changes in price-competitiveness.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0717.pdf
File Function: First spanish version, June 2007
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0717.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0717
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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