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Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España

Author

Listed:
  • Eva Ortega

    () (Banco de España)

  • Pablo Burriel

    () (Banco de España)

  • José Luis Fernández

    () (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ferraz

    () (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts published by the national statistical office, suggested that a reestimation of the model was due. This paper presents such reestimation with newer data (up to the end of 2005), and includes some modifications that were deemed necessary in certain equations. The quarterly model of the Bank of Spain keeps a similar structure to its previous version; it still is basically a demand-driven model. It is found that the Spanish economy shows, in general, higher sensitivity than in previous periods to changes in exogenous variables, especially in financial conditions. The new model reflects, too, changes in demographic trends, and presents an external sector less sentitive to changes in price-competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Ortega & Pablo Burriel & José Luis Fernández & Eva Ferraz & Samuel Hurtado, 2007. "Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Working Papers 0717, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0717
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0717.pdf
    File Function: First spanish version, June 2007
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    2. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "La función de producción de Cobb-Douglas y la economía española," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 12, pages 9-38.
    3. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 422-431.
    4. Samuel Hurtado & Elena Fernández & Eva Ortega & Alberto Urtasun, 2011. "Nueva actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Occasional Papers 1106, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    5. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    6. Muñoz Sepúlveda, Jesús A., 2014. "Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 54799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Manuel Blanco Losada & Rafael Frutos Vívar & Elena López y Díaz-Delgado & Silvio Martínez Vicente, 2014. "La influencia de la riqueza financiera sobre el consumo privado. Análisis de la experiencia española durante la Gran Recesión," Working Papers 03/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    8. Isabel Argimón & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "The determinants of budget balances of the regional (Autonomous) governments," Working Papers 0803, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economía española; Spanish economy; modelo macroeconómico; macroeconometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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