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Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency

Author

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  • Kim Huynh
  • Jozsef Molnar
  • Oleksandr Shcherbakov
  • Qinghui Yu

Abstract

In recent years, there have been rapid technological innovations in retail payments. Such dramatic changes in the economics of payment systems have led to questions regarding whether there is consumer demand for cash. The entry of these new products and services has resulted in significant improvements in the characteristics of existing methods of payment, such as tap-and-go technology or contactless credit and debit cards. In addition, the introduction of decentralized digital currencies has raised questions about whether there is a need for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and, if so, what its essential characteristics should be. To address these questions, we develop and estimate a structural model of demand for payment instruments. Our model allows for rich heterogeneity in consumer preferences. Identification of the distribution of consumer heterogeneity relies on observing individual-level consumer decisions at the point of sale. Using parameter estimates, we conduct a counterfactual experiment of an introduction of CBDC and simulate post-introduction consumer adoption and usage decisions. We also provide insights into the potential welfare implications of the introduction of new payment instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Huynh & Jozsef Molnar & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & Qinghui Yu, 2020. "Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency," Staff Working Papers 20-7, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Loke Yiing Jia, 2007. "Determinants of Merchant Participation in Credit Card Payment Schemes," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Naoki Wakamori & Angelika Welte, 2017. "Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 115-169, February.
    3. Jonker Nicole, 2011. "Card Acceptance and Surcharging: the Role of Costs and Competition," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-35, June.
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    7. Carlos Arango & Angelika Welte, 2012. "The Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Methodology and Key Results," Discussion Papers 12-6, Bank of Canada.
    8. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Rallye Shen, 2015. "2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Results," Discussion Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    9. Sergei Koulayev & Marc Rysman & Scott Schuh & Joanna Stavins, 2016. "Explaining adoption and use of payment instruments by US consumers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(2), pages 293-325, May.
    10. Carlos Arango & Varya Taylor, 2008. "Merchant Acceptance, Costs, and Perceptions of Retail Payments: A Canadian Survey," Discussion Papers 08-12, Bank of Canada.
    11. Kim Huynh & Gradon Nicholls & Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2019. "Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods," Staff Working Papers 19-32, Bank of Canada.
    12. Anneke Kosse & Heng Chen & Marie-Hélène Felt & Valéry Dongmo Jiongo & Kerry Nield & Angelika Welte, 2017. "The Costs of Point-of-Sale Payments in Canada," Discussion Papers 17-4, Bank of Canada.
    13. Borzekowski, Ron & Kiser, Elizabeth K., 2008. "The choice at the checkout: Quantifying demand across payment instruments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 889-902, July.
    14. David Bounie & Abel François & Leo Van Hove, 2017. "Consumer Payment Preferences, Network Externalities, and Merchant Card Acceptance: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 51(3), pages 257-290, November.
    15. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Angelika Welte, 2018. "2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report," Discussion Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    16. Arango, Carlos & Huynh, Kim P. & Sabetti, Leonard, 2015. "Consumer payment choice: Merchant card acceptance versus pricing incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-141.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    2. Kim Huynh & Gradon Nicholls & Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2022. "Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee," Staff Working Papers 22-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Shy, Oz, 2020. "Low-income consumers and payment choice," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 292-300.
    4. Cyril Monnet & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta & Raphael Auer & Tara Rice, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: Motives, Economic Implications, and the Research Frontier," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 697-721, August.
    5. Morales-Resendiz, Raúl & Ponce, Jorge & Picardo, Pablo & Velasco, Andrés & Chen, Bobby & Sanz, León & Guiborg, Gabriela & Segendorff, Björn & Vasquez, José Luis & Arroyo, John & Aguirre, Illich & Hayn, 2021. "Implementing a retail CBDC: Lessons learned and key insights," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    6. Svetlana Abramova & Rainer Böhme & Helmut Elsinger & Helmut Stix & Martin Summer, 2022. "What can CBDC designers learn from asking potential users? Results from a survey of Austrian residents (Svetlana Abramova, Rainer Böhme, Helmut Elsinger, Helmut Stix, Martin Summer)," Working Papers 241, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Who adopts crypto assets in Japan? Evidence from the 2019 financial literacy survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Andrew Usher & Edona Reshidi & Francisco Rivadeneyra & Scott Hendry, 2021. "The Positive Case for a CBDC," Discussion Papers 2021-11, Bank of Canada.
    9. Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Circular economy and central bank digital currency," MPRA Paper 113469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Janet Hua Jiang, 2020. "CBDC adoption and usage: some insights from field and laboratory experiments," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    11. Charles M. Kahn & Maarten van Oordt & Yu Zhu, 2021. "Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery," Staff Working Papers 21-67, Bank of Canada.
    12. Hiroshi FUJIKI, 2020. "Attributes needed for Japan's central bank digital currency," Working Papers e151, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    13. Shy, Oz, 2021. "Cashless stores and cash users," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 622-638.
    14. Daniela Balutel & Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Cash in the Pocket, Cash in the Cloud: Cash Holdings of Bitcoin Owners," Staff Working Papers 22-26, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank notes; Digital currencies and fintech; Financial services;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods

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