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Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill

Author

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  • Lance Lochner
  • Youngmin Park
  • Youngki Shin

Abstract

Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the U.S. over the past few decades. We identify and estimate a general model of log wage residuals that incorporates: (i) changing returns to unobserved skills, (ii) a changing distribution of unobserved skills, and (iii) changing volatility in wages due to factors unrelated to skills. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate that the returns to unobserved skills have declined by as much as 50% since the mid-1980s despite a sizeable increase in residual inequality. Instead, the variance of skills rose over this period because of increasing variability in lifecycle skill growth. Finally, we develop an assignment model of the labor market and show that both demand and supply factors contributed to the downward trend in the returns to skills over time, with demand factors dominating for non-college men.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill," Staff Working Papers 17-61, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-61
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    Cited by:

    1. Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2020. "Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill," Working Papers 2020-075, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Galassi, Gabriela & Koll, David & Mayr, Lukas, 2019. "The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture?," IZA Discussion Papers 12595, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Gabriela Galassi & David Koll & Lukas Mayr, 2019. "The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture?," Staff Working Papers 19-33, Bank of Canada.
    4. Nicolas A. Roys & Christopher R. Taber, 2019. "Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men," NBER Working Papers 26453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Labour markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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