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The Ex-Ante Versus Ex-Post Effect of Public Guarantees

  • H. Evren Damar
  • Reint Gropp
  • Adi Mordel

In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals. We use this natural experiment to evaluate the consequences of bail out expectations for bank behavior using a difference in differences approach. The results suggest a striking difference between the effects of bail out probabilities during calm times (“ex ante”) versus during crisis times (“ex post”). During calm times, higher bail-out probabilities result in higher risk taking, consistent with the moral hazard view and much of the empirical literature. However, in crisis times, we find that banks with higher bail out probabilities tend to increase their risk taking less compared to banks that were ex ante unlikely to be bailed-out. Charter values are one part of the explanation: Supported banks may have a funding advantage relative to non-supported banks during the crisis. However, we cannot rule out that other factors also may be playing a role, including tighter supervision of supported banks in crisis times.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-22.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-22
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  1. Hakenes, Hendrik & Schnabel, Isabel, 2010. "Banks without parachutes: Competitive effects of government bail-out policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 156-168, September.
  2. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2009. "Do supervisory rating standards change over time?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-24.
  3. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125498 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Boyd, John H. & Runkle, David E., 1993. "Size and performance of banking firms : Testing the predictions of theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, February.
  5. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
  6. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tito Cordella, 1999. "Bank Bailouts; Moral Hazard vs. Value Effect," IMF Working Papers 99/106, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Reint Gropp & Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2010. "Competition, Risk-Shifting, and Public Bail-out Policies," Working Papers 1003, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 14 Jan 2010.
  8. Andrea Sironi, 2000. "Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala, 2002. "Deposit insurance, moral hazard, and market monitoring," Proceedings 823, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, . "The Information Value of Bond Ratings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  11. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio, Jr. & Ross Levine, 2002. "Bank Regulation and Supervision: What Works Best?," NBER Working Papers 9323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gropp, Reint & Gruendl, Christian & Guettler, Andre, 2010. "The impact of public guarantees on bank risk taking: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 1272, European Central Bank.
  13. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
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