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Bank bailouts, interventions, and moral hazard

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  • Lammertjan Dam
  • Michael Koetter

Abstract

To test if safety nets create moral hazard in the banking industry, we develop a simultaneous structural two-equations model that specifies the probability of a bailout and banks' risk taking.We identify the effect of expected bailout probabilities on risk taking using exclusion restrictions based on regional political, supervisor, and banking market traits. The sample includes all observed capital preservation measures and distressed exits in the German banking industry during 1995-2006. The marginal effect of risk with respect to bailout expectations is 7.2 basis points. A change of bailout expectations by two standard deviations increases the probability of official distress from 6.2% to 9.9%. Only interventions directly targeting bank management and, to a lesser extent, penalties mitigate moral hazard. Weak interventions, such as warnings, do not reduce moral hazard.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lammertjan Dam & Michael Koetter, 2011. "Bank bailouts, interventions, and moral hazard," Proceedings 1131, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhpr:1131
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    Cited by:

    1. Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Behn, Markus & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "The Political Economy of Bank Bailouts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113082, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Varvara Isyuk, 2013. "Determinants of the Allocation of Funds Under the Capital Purchase Program," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-114, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank failures; Troubled Asset Relief Program; Financial institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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