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Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship

  • Stuart M. Turnbull
  • Jun Yang
Registered author(s):

The paper examines three equity-based structural models to study the nonlinear relationship between equity and credit default swap (CDS) prices. These models differ in the specification of the default barrier. With cross-firm CDS premia and equity information, we are able to estimate and compare the three models. We find that the stochastic barrier model performs better than the constant and uncertain barrier models in terms of both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting of CDS premia. In addition, we demonstrate a linkage between the default barrier, jump intensity, and barrier volatility estimated from our models and firm-specific variables related to default risk, such as credit ratings, equity volatility, and leverage ratios.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp08-1.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 08-1.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-1
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Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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  1. Campbell, John & Taksler, Glen, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Scholarly Articles 3153307, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  3. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
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  7. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
  8. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 555-76.
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  10. Benjamin Y. Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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  13. Haibin Zhu & Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," BIS Working Papers 181, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Giesecke, Kay, 2001. "Correlated default with incomplete information," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,30, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  16. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
  17. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, 06.
  18. Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
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