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Financial Crisis and Sticky Expectations

  • Saten Kumar

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Law, Auckland University of Technology)

  • Barrett Owen
Registered author(s):

    We utilize the Kalman filter and instrumental variable methods to estimate consumption growth persistence for the U.S. Results show that prior to the financial crisis, the stickiness parameter beta was around 0.7. However, when the sample is extended until 2009.Q1, the estimates of beta declined to around 0.5. Extending the sample beyond 2009.Q1 show mild increase in beta. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers' attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth.

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    File URL: http://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/373336/Economics-WP-2013-05.pdf
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    Paper provided by Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-05.

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    Length: 11 pages
    Date of creation: May 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201305
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    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D. & Slacalek, Jirka & Sommer, Martin, 2008. "International evidence on sticky consumption growth," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
    4. Sommer Martin, 2007. "Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
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