Assessing national climate-neutrality plans through a modelling nexus lens: the case of Greece

Achieving climate-neutrality is a global imperative that demands coordinated efforts from both science and robust policies supporting a smooth transition across multiple sectors. However, the interdisciplinary and complex science-to-policy nature of this effort makes it particularly challenging for several countries. Greece has set ambitious goals across different policies; however, their progress is often debated. For the first time, we simulated a scenario representing Greece's climate-neutrality goals drawing upon its main relevant energy, agricultural and water policies by 2050. We follow a systems-nexus approach that encompasses the FABLE Calculator, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), and the tools WaterReqGCH, LandReqCalcGCH and BiofuelGCH. The results indicate that most individual/sector policies have the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy (residential, industrial, transportation, services, agriculture, and energy production). However, their implementation seems to be based on governance assumptions that often overlook sectoral interdependencies and infrastructure constraints, hindering progress towards a unified and more holistic sustainable transition.