IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2610.11256.html

Who Leads and Who Collects:Algorithmic Collusion in Markets of Heterogeneous Language Models

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Yeong Lee

Abstract

Evidence that pricing algorithms collude comes from markets in which every seller runs the same algorithm. We ask what happens when they do not. Four language models from four providers, each at its cheapest tier, price in a four-firm logit Bertrand market without communication, in every homogeneous, two-by-two and fully mixed composi- tion (11 cells, 20 runs, 200 periods). Collusion is a property of the model: Claude and Gemini markets reach 72 to 79 percent of the monopoly rent, DeepSeek markets 24 percent, and GPT markets none, though GPT prices drift above the monopoly level rather than toward competition. Mixing does not reduce collusion by itself. Markets containing Gemini, which opens at the highest price and settles highest, are more col- lusive than the homogeneous markets they are built from; markets containing Claude, which opens lower and follows its rivals down, are less so; and only the fully mixed market is significantly less collusive than the average homogeneous one. Stability de- pends on the least stable participant: two GPT firms suffice to keep any market from converging. Inside mixed markets the rent is shared in a transitive order, DeepSeek over Claude over Gemini over GPT, that inverts the anchor ranking. The model that raises the price collects the least of the rent, as the price-leadership model predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Yeong Lee, 2026. "Who Leads and Who Collects:Algorithmic Collusion in Markets of Heterogeneous Language Models," Papers 2610.11256, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.11256
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.11256
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timo Klein, 2021. "Autonomous algorithmic collusion: Q‐learning under sequential pricing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(3), pages 538-558, September.
    2. Emilio Calvano & Giacomo Calzolari & Vincenzo Denicolò & Sergio Pastorello, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3267-3297, October.
    3. Waltman, Ludo & Kaymak, Uzay, 2008. "Q-learning agents in a Cournot oligopoly model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3275-3293, October.
    4. Claude d'Aspremont & Alexis Jacquemin & Jean Jaskold Gabszewicz & John A. Weymark, 1983. "On the Stability of Collusive Price Leadership," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 17-25, February.
    5. Calvano, Emilio & Calzolari, Giacomo & Denicoló, Vincenzo & Pastorello, Sergio, 2021. "Algorithmic collusion with imperfect monitoring," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Justin P. Johnson & Andrew Rhodes & Matthijs Wildenbeest, 2023. "Platform Design When Sellers Use Pricing Algorithms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1841-1879, September.
    7. Huck, Steffen & Normann, Hans-Theo & Oechssler, Jorg, 2004. "Two are few and four are many: number effects in experimental oligopolies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 435-446, April.
    8. Kasberger, Bernhard & Martin, Simon & Normann, Hans-Theo & Werner, Tobias, 2026. "Algorithmic cooperation: A comparison with human play in the infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 113-130.
    9. Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
    10. Steven O. Kimbrough & Ming Lu & Frederic Murphy, 2005. "Learning and Tacit Collusion by Artificial Agents in Cournot Duopoly Games," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Steven O. Kimbrough & D.J. Wu (ed.), Formal Modelling in Electronic Commerce, pages 477-492, Springer.
    11. Werner, Tobias, 2021. "Algorithmic and human collusion," DICE Discussion Papers 372, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    12. Ibrahim Abada & Xavier Lambin, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence: Can Seemingly Collusive Outcomes Be Avoided?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 5042-5065, September.
    13. Stephanie Assad & Robert Clark & Daniel Ershov & Lei Xu, 2024. "Algorithmic Pricing and Competition: Empirical Evidence from the German Retail Gasoline Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(3), pages 723-771.
    14. Joseph E Harrington, 2018. "Developing Competition Law For Collusion By Autonomous Artificial Agents," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 331-363.
    15. John J. Horton & Apostolos Filippas & Benjamin S. Manning, 2023. "Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents: What Can We Learn from Homo Silicus?," NBER Working Papers 31122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ballestero, Gonzalo, 2026. "Algorithmic collusion under sequential pricing and stochastic costs," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Gonzalo Ballestero, 2021. "Collusion and Artificial Intelligence: A computational experiment with sequential pricing algorithms under stochastic costs," Young Researchers Working Papers 1, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Gonzalo Ballestero, 2022. "Collusion and Artificial Intelligence: A Computational Experiment with Sequential Pricing Algorithms under Stochastic Costs," Working Papers 118, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Chengcheng Wang & Zexin Ye, 2026. "Strategic Information Disclosure in Algorithmic Pricing," Papers 2607.04345, arXiv.org.
    5. Zexin Ye, 2025. "Algorithmic Collusion under Observed Demand Shocks," Papers 2502.15084, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    6. J. Manuel Sanchez-Cartas & Evangelos Katsamakas, 2025. "AI pricing algorithms under platform competition," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 4343-4370, December.
    7. Ivan Conjeaud & Gaspard Abel & Argyris Kalogeratos, 2026. "Algorithmic collusion under asynchronous price updating," Papers 2608.01406, arXiv.org.
    8. Martin, Simon & Rasch, Alexander, 2022. "Collusion by algorithm: The role of unobserved actions," DICE Discussion Papers 382, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    9. Janusz M. Meylahn & Maximilian Schafer, 2026. "Equilibrium stability as a driver of cooperation among Q-learners," Papers 2607.13607, arXiv.org.
    10. Gillian K. Hadfield & Andrew Koh, 2025. "An Economy of AI Agents," Papers 2509.01063, arXiv.org.
    11. Martin, Simon & Rasch, Alexander, 2024. "Demand forecasting, signal precision, and collusion with hidden actions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Hangcheng Zhao & Ron Berman, 2025. "Algorithmic Collusion of Pricing and Advertising on E-commerce Platforms," Papers 2508.08325, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    13. Hanspach, Philip & Sapi, Geza & Wieting, Marcel, 2024. "Algorithms in the marketplace: An empirical analysis of automated pricing in e-commerce," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Gillian K. Hadfield & Andrew Koh, 2025. "An Economy of AI Agents," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, pages 119-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Zhang Xu & Wei Zhao, 2024. "Memoryless Algorithmic Collusion: Sure to Fail, Slow to Fall," Papers 2409.01147, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    16. Normann, Hans-Theo & Sternberg, Martin, 2023. "Human-algorithm interaction: Algorithmic pricing in hybrid laboratory markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Cartea, Álvaro & Chang, Patrick & Penalva, José & Waldon, Harrison, 2026. "Algorithmic collusion and a folk theorem from learning with bounded rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1-21.
    18. Lambin, Xavier & Raizonville, Adrien, 2025. "From black box to glass box: algorithmic explainability as a strategic decision," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Liying Qiu & Yan Huang & Param Vir Singh & Kannan Srinivasan, 2025. "Personalization, Consumer Search, and Algorithmic Pricing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(6), pages 1278-1298, November.
    20. Jackie Baek & Vivek F. Farias & Farrell Wu, 2026. "Misspecified Estimate-then-Optimize Leads to Supra-Competitive Prices," Papers 2605.16064, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.11256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.