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The Yeoman's Portfolio: Measuring Historical Risk Preferences Using Crop Choice

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  • Remy Levin
  • Daniela Vidart

Abstract

We design a method for measuring the risk preferences of agents in the deep past. The method combines a structural model of crop choice as a portfolio allocation with machine-learning prediction of expected crop returns, using historic agronomic and climate data. We estimate county-level risk preferences for the United States and farmer-level preferences in Kansas from 1889 to 1929. More risk averse farmers leveraged less, were less likely to purchase novel WWI Liberty Bonds, and were more likely to participate in local risk-sharing institutions. We show that higher risk aversion predicts slower tractor adoption and farm mechanization during the 1920s.

Suggested Citation

  • Remy Levin & Daniela Vidart, 2026. "The Yeoman's Portfolio: Measuring Historical Risk Preferences Using Crop Choice," Papers 2608.15876, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.15876
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2016. "Inference under stability of risk preferences," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 367-409, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • N51 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N52 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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