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A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence

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  • Davit Gondauri

Abstract

In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0-100 scale. The GI addresses a key limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, so strength in one area cannot sustainably offset fragility in another. The index integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS), Liquidity and Systemic Resilience (LNSR), and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC). Cross-country comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5-p95), a consistent annual country-year design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight renormalization. Empirically, the paper provides a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence for 2005-2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Delta log(GI) contribution decomposition, allowing transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026-2030 scenario pathways and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI offers a scalable tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing.

Suggested Citation

  • Davit Gondauri, 2026. "A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence," Papers 2604.12368, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.12368
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