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Reputation, Risk, and Visibility

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  • Georgy Lukyanov

Abstract

When does reputation make experts play it safe, and what policy reverses that? I isolate a single lever - visibility of outcomes. In a two-page model with binary signals and outcomes, I show: (i) with an uninformative safe option and symmetric visibility, career concerns alone do not generate conservatism; (ii) increasing failure visibility (as in Registered Reports) weakens high-reputation caution and relaxes selection. I provide a necessary-and-sufficient local sign test, agnostic about utility curvature and allowing informative safe actions, and an identification map suitable for staggered RR adoption.

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  • Georgy Lukyanov, 2025. "Reputation, Risk, and Visibility," Papers 2509.04037, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04037
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.04037
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