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Entropy Regularized Belief Reporting

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  • Elchin Suleymanov

Abstract

This paper investigates a model of partition dependence, a widely reported experimental finding where the agent's reported beliefs depend on how the states are grouped. In the model, called Entropy Regularized Belief Reporting (ERBR), the agent is endowed with a latent benchmark prior that is unobserved by the analyst. When presented with a partition, the agent reports a prior that minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence from the latent benchmark prior subject to entropy regularization. This captures the intuition that while the agent would like to report a prior that is close to her latent benchmark prior, she may also have a preference to remain noncommittal. I axiomatically characterize the model and apply it to the experimental data from Benjamin et al. (2017).

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  • Elchin Suleymanov, 2025. "Entropy Regularized Belief Reporting," Papers 2506.22649, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.22649
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel J. Benjamin & Matthew Rabin & Collin Raymond, 2016. "A Model of Nonbelief in the Law of Large Numbers," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 515-544.
    2. Craig R. Fox & Robert T. Clemen, 2005. "Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1417-1432, September.
    3. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Camerer, Colin F, 1987. "Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 981-997, December.
    5. Little, Andrew T., 2022. "Information Theory and Biased Beliefs," OSF Preprints vfqy2, Center for Open Science.
    6. Johnson, Eric J & Hershey, John & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Kunreuther, Howard, 1993. "Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-51, August.
    7. Robert T. Clemen & Canan Ulu, 2008. "Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 835-851, April.
    8. repec:osf:osfxxx:vfqy2_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. David S. Ahn & Haluk Ergin, 2010. "Framing Contingencies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 655-695, March.
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