IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2108.05488.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying poverty traps based on the network structure of economic output

Author

Listed:
  • Vanessa Echeverri
  • Juan C. Duque
  • Daniel E. Restrepo

Abstract

In this work, we explore the relationship between monetary poverty and production combining relatedness theory, graph theory, and regression analysis. We develop two measures at product level that capture short-run and long-run patterns of poverty, respectively. We use the network of related products (or product space) and both metrics to estimate the influence of the productive structure of a country in its current and future levels of poverty. We found that poverty is highly associated with poorly connected nodes in the PS, especially products based on natural resources. We perform a series of regressions with several controls (including human capital, institutions, income, and population) to show the robustness of our measures as predictors of poverty. Finally, by means of some illustrative examples, we show how our measures distinguishes between nuanced cases of countries with similar poverty and production and identify possibilities of improving their current poverty levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanessa Echeverri & Juan C. Duque & Daniel E. Restrepo, 2021. "Identifying poverty traps based on the network structure of economic output," Papers 2108.05488, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2108.05488
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Emanuele Pugliese & Guido L Chiarotti & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2017. "Complex Economies Have a Lateral Escape from the Poverty Trap," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Federico Tadei, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of Extractive Institutions: Evidence from Trade Policies in Colonial French Africa," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 183-208, September.
    4. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    5. Frank Neffke & Martin Henning & Ron Boschma, 2011. "How Do Regions Diversify over Time? Industry Relatedness and the Development of New Growth Paths in Regions," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 87(3), pages 237-265, July.
    6. Aart Kraay & David McKenzie, 2014. "Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 127-148, Summer.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    8. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    12. R. Church & J. C. Duque & D. E. Restrepo, 2020. "The p-Innovation ecosystems model," Papers 2008.05885, arXiv.org.
    13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    14. Makoka, Donald & Kaplan, Marcus, 2005. "Poverty and Vulnerability - An Interdisciplinary Approach," MPRA Paper 6964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    16. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    17. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    18. Ricardo Hausmann & César Hidalgo, 2011. "The network structure of economic output," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 309-342, December.
    19. Durlauf, Steven N, 1996. "A Theory of Persistent Income Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 75-93, March.
    20. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    21. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    22. Pierre-Alexandre Balland & Ron Boschma & Joan Crespo & David L. Rigby, 2019. "Smart specialization policy in the European Union: relatedness, knowledge complexity and regional diversification," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(9), pages 1252-1268, September.
    23. Aamena Alshamsi & Flávio L. Pinheiro & Cesar A. Hidalgo, 2018. "Optimal diversification strategies in the networks of related products and of related research areas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    24. Apergis, Nicholas & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2018. "Poverty and the resource curse: Evidence from a global panel of countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 211-223.
    25. Jonathan Haughton & Shahidur R. Khandker, 2009. "Handbook on Poverty and Inequality," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11985, December.
    26. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    27. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    2. Trung V. Vu, 2022. "Does institutional quality foster economic complexity? The fundamental drivers of productive capabilities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1571-1604, September.
    3. Pinheiro, Flávio L. & Hartmann, Dominik & Boschma, Ron & Hidalgo, César A., 2022. "The time and frequency of unrelated diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    4. Zoran Utkovski & Melanie F Pradier & Viktor Stojkoski & Fernando Perez-Cruz & Ljupco Kocarev, 2018. "Economic complexity unfolded: Interpretable model for the productive structure of economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    6. Diogo Ferraz & Fernanda P. S. Falguera & Enzo B. Mariano & Dominik Hartmann, 2021. "Linking Economic Complexity, Diversification, and Industrial Policy with Sustainable Development: A Structured Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, January.
    7. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    8. Vu, Trung V., 2020. "Economic complexity and health outcomes: A global perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    9. Hartmann, Dominik & Zagato, Ligia & Gala, Paulo & Pinheiro, Flavio L., 2021. "Why did some countries catch-up, while others got stuck in the middle? Stages of productive sophistication and smart industrial policies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    10. R. Church & J. C. Duque & D. E. Restrepo, 2020. "The p-Innovation ecosystems model," Papers 2008.05885, arXiv.org.
    11. Wonsub Eum & Jeong‐Dong Lee, 2022. "Alternative paths of diversification for developing countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2336-2355, November.
    12. Roberto Antonietti & Chiara Burlina, 2023. "Exploring the entropy-complexity nexus. Evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 257-283, April.
    13. Antonella Chiappelo & Alejandro Danón & Guillermina Marto & Nicolás Pinto, 2019. "Tell me what you export today and I will tell you what you will export tomorrow: The Product Space and the Evolution of Country pattern of specialization," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4171, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    14. Bernardo Caldarola & Dario Mazzilli & Lorenzo Napolitano & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella, 2023. "Economic complexity and the sustainability transition: A review of data, methods, and literature," Papers 2308.07172, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    15. Catalán, Pablo & Navarrete, Carlos & Figueroa, Felipe, 2022. "The scientific and technological cross-space: Is technological diversification driven by scientific endogenous capacity?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    16. C'esar A. Hidalgo, 2022. "The Policy Implications of Economic Complexity," Papers 2205.02164, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    17. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    18. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    19. Alje van Dam & Koen Frenken, 2019. "Variety, Complexity and Economic Development," Papers 1903.07997, arXiv.org.
    20. Mealy, Penny & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2017. "Economic Complexity and the Green Economy," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-03, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2019.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.