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Impact of COVID-19 behavioral inertia on reopening strategies for New York City Transit

Author

Listed:
  • Ding Wang
  • Brian Yueshuai He
  • Jingqin Gao
  • Joseph Y. J. Chow
  • Kaan Ozbay
  • Shri Iyer

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. A baseline model was previously developed and calibrated for pre-COVID conditions as MATSim-NYC. A new COVID model is calibrated that represents travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic by recalibrating the population agendas to include work-from-home and re-estimating the mode choice model for MATSim-NYC to fit observed traffic and transit ridership data. Assuming the change in behavior exhibits inertia during reopening, we analyze the increase in car traffic due to the phased reopen plan guided by the state government of New York. Four reopening phases and two reopening scenarios (with and without transit capacity restrictions) are analyzed. A Phase 4 reopening with 100% transit capacity may only see as much as 73% of pre-COVID ridership and an increase in the number of car trips by as much as 142% of pre-pandemic levels. Limiting transit capacity to 50% would decrease transit ridership further from 73% to 64% while increasing car trips to as much as 143% of pre-pandemic levels. While the increase appears small, the impact on consumer surplus is disproportionately large due to already increased traffic congestion. Many of the trips also get shifted to other modes like micromobility. The findings imply that a transit capacity restriction policy during reopening needs to be accompanied by (1) support for micromobility modes, particularly in non-Manhattan boroughs, and (2) congestion alleviation policies that focus on reducing traffic in Manhattan, such as cordon-based pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding Wang & Brian Yueshuai He & Jingqin Gao & Joseph Y. J. Chow & Kaan Ozbay & Shri Iyer, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 behavioral inertia on reopening strategies for New York City Transit," Papers 2006.13368, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.13368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
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    2. Peter Fieger & Girish Prayag & David Dyason & John Rice & C. Michael Hall, 2023. "Exploring CBD Retail Performance, Recovery and Resilience of a Smart City Following COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Patni, Sagar & Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan & Suarez, Juan, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on route-level changes in transit demand an analysis of five transit agencies in Florida, USA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Wang, Ding & Tayarani, Mohammad & Yueshuai He, Brian & Gao, Jingqin & Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Oliver Gao, H. & Ozbay, Kaan, 2021. "Mobility in post-pandemic economic reopening under social distancing guidelines: Congestion, emissions, and contact exposure in public transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 151-170.
    5. Rossetti, Tomás & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2024. "Crowding multipliers on shared transportation in New York City: The effects of COVID-19 and implications for a sustainable future," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 224-236.
    6. Ali Enes Dingil & Andre Maia Pereira & Ondrej Přibyl & Jakub Vorel, 2025. "Evidence-based transport policy analysis driven by agent-based simulation: the case of mobility in Ústí nad Labem," Transportation, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1191-1219, June.
    7. Rosa Maria Dangelico & Valerio Schiaroli & Luca Fraccascia, 2022. "Is Covid‐19 changing sustainable consumer behavior? A survey of Italian consumers," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1477-1496, December.
    8. Elif Bozkaya & Levent Eriskin & Mumtaz Karatas, 2023. "Data analytics during pandemics: a transportation and location planning perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 328(1), pages 193-244, September.
    9. Soria, Jason & Edward, Deirdre & Stathopoulos, Amanda, 2023. "Requiem for transit ridership? An examination of who abandoned, who will return, and who will ride more with mobility as a service," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 139-154.

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