IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1610.00259.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hysteresis and Duration Dependence of Financial Crises in the US: Evidence from 1871-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Menezes
  • Sonia Bentes

Abstract

This study analyses the duration dependence of events that trigger volatility persistence in stock markets. Such events, in our context, are monthly spells of contiguous price decline or negative returns for the S&P500 stock market index over the last 145 years. Factors known to affect the duration of these spells are the magnitude or intensity of the price decline, long-term interest rates and economic recessions, among others. The result of interest is the conditional probability of ending a spell of consecutive months over which stock market returns remain negative. In this study, we rely on continuous time survival models in order to investigate this question. Several specifications were attempted, some of which under the proportional hazards assumption and others under the accelerated failure time assumption. The best fit of the various models endeavored was obtained for the log-normal distribution. This distribution yields a non-monotonic hazard function that increases up to a maximum and then decreases. The peak is achieved 2-3 months after the spells onset with a hazard of around 0.9 or higher; this hazard then decays asymptotically to zero. Spells duration increase during recessions, when interest rate rises and when price declines are more intense. The main conclusion is that short spells of negative returns appear to be mainly frictional while long spells become structural and trigger hysteresis effects after an initial period of adjustment. Although in line with our expectations, these results may be of some importance for policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Menezes & Sonia Bentes, 2016. "Hysteresis and Duration Dependence of Financial Crises in the US: Evidence from 1871-2016," Papers 1610.00259, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1610.00259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.00259
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boubakri, Salem & Couharde, Cécile & Raymond, Hélène, 2016. "Effects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 120-138.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    4. Ntantamis, Christos & Zhou, Jun, 2015. "Bull and bear markets in commodity prices and commodity stocks: Is there a relation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 61-81.
    5. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    6. Rolf Aaberge, 2002. "Characterization and Measurement of Duration Dependence in Hazard Rate Models," Discussion Papers 319, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence in France, the Netherlands and the UK," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. King, Gary & Roberts, Margaret E., 2015. "How Robust Standard Errors Expose Methodological Problems They Do Not Fix, and What to Do About It," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 159-179, March.
    10. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    11. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    12. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    13. Freedman, David A., 2006. "On The So-Called "Huber-Sandwich Estimator" and "Robust Standard Errors"," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 60, pages 299-302, November.
    14. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F., 2014. "Risk aversion, investor information and stock market volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 88-107.
    15. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    16. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
    17. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Lorenzo Giorgianni & Leonardo Bartolini, 1999. "Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 99/71, International Monetary Fund.
    19. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    20. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
    21. Dionisio, Andreia & Menezes, Rui & Mendes, Diana A., 2007. "On the integrated behaviour of non-stationary volatility in stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 58-65.
    22. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    23. Bentes, Sónia R. & Menezes, Rui & Mendes, Diana A., 2008. "Long memory and volatility clustering: Is the empirical evidence consistent across stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3826-3830.
    24. Jouni Kuha, 2004. "AIC and BIC," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(2), pages 188-229, November.
    25. repec:ags:stataj:115948 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Salem Boubakri & Cécile Couharde & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-52, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    27. Roberto G. Gutierrez, 2002. "Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(1), pages 22-44, February.
    28. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    29. Economou, Fotini & Katsikas, Epameinondas & Vickers, Gregory, 2016. "Testing for herding in the Athens Stock Exchange during the crisis period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 334-341.
    30. Markose, Sheri M & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2005. "The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution, Implied Tail Index and Option Pricing," Economics Discussion Papers 3726, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    31. Li, Wei-Shen & Liaw, Sy-Sang, 2015. "Return volatility interval analysis of stock indexes during a financial crash," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 434(C), pages 151-163.
    32. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 432-443, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1610.00259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.