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Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

  • Giacomo Bormetti
  • Lucio Maria Calcagnile
  • Michele Treccani
  • Fulvio Corsi
  • Stefano Marmi
  • Fabrizio Lillo

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.6141
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1301.6141.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision: Mar 2013
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.6141
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. LAHAYE, Jérôme & LAURENT, Sébastien & NEELY, Christopher J., . "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2413, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Frédéric Abergel & Anirban Chakraborti & B.K. Chakrabarti & M. Mitra, 2011. "Econophysics of order-driven markets," Post-Print hal-00872396, HAL.
  3. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
  4. Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Toke, Ioane Muni & Pomponio, Fabrizio, 2012. "Modelling trades-through in a limit order book using hawkes processes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-23.
  6. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO.
  7. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Reno', 2010. "Threshold Bipower Variation and the Impact of Jumps on Volatility Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2010/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
  9. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
  11. Brownlees, C.T. & Gallo, G.M., 2006. "Financial econometric analysis at ultra-high frequency: Data handling concerns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2232-2245, December.
  12. Mardi Dungey & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2010. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury Bond and Futures Markets," NCER Working Paper Series 56, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 20 Jul 2010.
  13. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
  14. E. Bacry & S. Delattre & M. Hoffmann & J. F. Muzy, 2013. "Modelling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-77, January.
  15. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
  16. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
  18. Ioane Muni Toke & Fabrizio Pomponio, 2012. "Modelling Trades-Through in a Limit Order Book Using Hawkes Processes," Post-Print hal-00745554, HAL.
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