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Housing Tenure, Consumption and Household Debt: Life-Cycle Dynamics During a Housing Bust in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Clodomiro Ferreira

    (Banco de España)

  • Julio Gálvez

    (CUNEF Universidad/SHOF)

  • Myroslav Pidkuyko

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The housing bust in Spain was characterized by a significant and rapid drop in home ownership among the younger cohorts, a relatively homogeneous but significant decrease in consumption, and significant movements in the rent-to-house price ratio. To uncover the causes of these movements, we solve and estimate an equilibrium life-cycle model with non-linear income dynamics, mortgages, housing, and rental markets and simulate a series of counterfactual policy changes and macroeconomic conditions observed in Spain during the period. The lion’s share of the observed drop in home ownership and consumption and the housing market dynamics can be explained by the tightening of credit conditions and the major shift in income dynamics observed in Spain between the boom and bust phases.

Suggested Citation

  • Clodomiro Ferreira & Julio Gálvez & Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2023. "Housing Tenure, Consumption and Household Debt: Life-Cycle Dynamics During a Housing Bust in Spain," Working Papers 285, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:285
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/285.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brindusa Anghel & Henrique Basso & Olympia Bover & José María Casado & Laura Hospido & Mario Izquierdo & Ivan A. Kataryniuk & Aitor Lacuesta & José Manuel Montero & Elena Vozmediano, 2018. "Income, consumption and wealth inequality in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 351-387, November.
    2. Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2024. "Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 207-237, January.
    3. Esteban García-Miralles & Nezih Guner & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "The Spanish personal income tax: facts and parametric estimates," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 439-477, November.
    4. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    5. Ozlem Akin & José Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 223-243, August.
    6. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    7. Arlene Wong, 2021. "Refinancing and The Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption," Working Papers 2021-57, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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