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Income Risk Inequality: Evidence from Spanish Administrative Records

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Arellano

    (CEMFI)

  • Stéphane Bonhomme

    (University of Chicago)

  • Micole De Vera

    (CEMFI)

  • Laura Hospido

    (Banco de EspaÑa and iza)

  • Siqi Wei

    (CEMFI)

Abstract

In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: more than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme & Micole De Vera & Laura Hospido & Siqi Wei, 2021. "Income Risk Inequality: Evidence from Spanish Administrative Records," Working Papers 2136, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2136
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Linas Tarasonis, 2025. "Earnings Inequality and Risk over Two Decades of Economic Development in Lithuania," GRAPE Working Papers 105, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    2. Søren Leth‐Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2022. "Inequality and dynamics of earnings and disposable income in Denmark 1987–2016," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1493-1526, November.
    3. Moritz Drechsel‐Grau & Andreas Peichl & Kai D. Schmid & Johannes F. Schmieder & Hannes Walz & Stefanie Wolter, 2022. "Inequality and income dynamics in Germany," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1593-1635, November.
    4. Jeanne Commault, 2025. "Heterogeneity in MPC Beyond Liquidity Constraints: The Role of Permanent Earnings," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers hal-03870685, HAL.
    5. Giulia Bovini & Emanuele Ciani & Marta De Philippis & Stefania Romano, 2023. "Labour income inequality and in-work poverty: a comparison between euro area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 806, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Stephane Bonhomme & Angela Denis, 2023. "Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters," Papers 2310.09105, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    7. Michele Lenza & Jiri Slacalek, 2024. "How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 746-765, August.
    8. Serrano-Serrat, Josep, 2022. "Occupation-Specific Skills, Labor Market Context and Preferences for Redistribution," SocArXiv rz9c6, Center for Open Science.
    9. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    10. Brindusa Anghel & Laura Hospido & Julio Ortega & Ana V. Regil, 2024. "To be or not to be (employed): two decades of fluctuating earnings and income inequality in Spain," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 415-428, September.
    11. Sylvain Catherine & Paolo Sodini & Yapei Zhang, 2024. "Countercyclical Income Risk and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from Sweden," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1755-1788, June.
    12. Silvia Sarpietro & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Non-Existent Moments of Earnings Growth," Papers 2203.08014, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    13. Nuno Alves & Carlos Martins, 2025. "The anatomy of household income dynamics in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Bavaro, Michele & Tullio, Federico, 2024. "A cycle or a tunnel? A study on unemployment and low-pay dynamics in Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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