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The Potential Effects of International Carbon Emissions Permit Trading Under the Kyoto Protocol

  • Warwick J. McKibbin


    (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Economics Division
    The Brookings Institution)

  • Robert Shackleton

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Office)

  • Peter J. Wilcoxen

    (University of Texas, Economics Department
    The Brookings Institution)

We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.

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Paper provided by Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network in its series Economics and Environment Network Working Papers with number 9805.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:anu:eenwps:9805
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  1. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  2. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin & Robert Shackleton & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 1998. "What to Expect from an International System of Tradable Permits for Carbon Emmisions," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 9804, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
  4. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hoel, M., 1989. "Global Environmental Problems: The Effects Of Unilateral Actions Taken By One Country," Memorandum 11/1989, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  7. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  8. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 5-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-52, Part II, .
  10. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "Environmental Policy and International Trade," Papers 117, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  11. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1992. "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026213280x, June.
  12. Roger H. Gordon & A. Lans Bovenberg, 1994. "Why is Capital so Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 4796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1990. "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the USA," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 51-74.
  14. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Papers 118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  15. J. P. Neary (ed.), 1995. "International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar, volume 0, number 575, March.
  16. Treadway, Arthur B, 1969. "On Rational Entrepreneurial Behaviour and the Demand for Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 227-39, April.
  17. Goulder Lawrence H., 1995. "Effects of Carbon Taxes in an Economy with Prior Tax Distortions: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-297, November.
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