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The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

  • Warwick Mckibbin
  • Dominick Salvatore

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 6 (1995)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 111-129

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:6:y:1995:i:2:p:111-129
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  1. Nguyen, T.T. & Perroni, C. & Wigle, R.M., 1991. "The Value of a Uruguay Round Success," Working Papers 91151, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
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  13. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, J.P., 1992. "G-Cubec: A Dynamic Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model of the Global economy (Quantifying the Cost of Curbing CO2 Emissions)," Papers 98, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  14. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1994. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United States," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 77.
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  16. Martin Feldstein, 1988. "International Economic Cooperation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld88-4, May.
  17. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "Environmental Policy and International Trade," Papers 117, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
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