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Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)


  • Ana Luísa Abras
  • Fabiana de Felício


The proportion of long-term unemployed (6 or more months) in the six major metropolitan areas in Brazil has grown 72% between 1986 and 2000. At the same time, the average duration of unemployment has risen 43% for the same period. This worrisome information motivates our purpose in this work: study the relation between exit probabilities and unemployment duration. Former studies for Brazil have found a negative relation between those two variables, considered the effect of the existence of a negative unemployment duration dependence. We try to respond below to what extent this is due to the heterogeneity of the unemployment group and to what extent to a true effect of duration dependence, being that question most relevant for policy-oriented decisions. In order to evaluate this matter, we uses the eyeball test proposed in Jackman and Layard (1991) applied to PME data (1984 to 2000). This test analyzes the impact of the average duration variation along the years on the probability of leaving unemployment for different duration classes, separating the effect of heterogeneity from genuine duration dependence. The results contradict former studies for Brazil since we consider that the fall in exit probabilities raises with unemployment duration due to the effect of heterogeneity of unemployed in observed and unobserved characteristics and not to unemployment negative duration dependence. Nevertheless, our findings are in accordance with studies for developed economies, with exception for England.

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  • Ana Luísa Abras & Fabiana de Felício, 2005. "Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 169, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:169

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mariângela Penido & Ana Flávia Machado, 2002. "Desemprego: evidências da duração no Brasil metropolitano," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td176, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    2. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1998. "On the Detection of State Dependence Using Aggregate Outflow Data: Comments on Previous Studies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1422-1430, September.
    3. van Ours, J.C. & van den Berg, G., 1997. "Eyeballing state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Other publications TiSEM 123b1d37-4898-4b05-a85b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
    5. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    6. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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