Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)
The proportion of long-term unemployed (6 or more months) in the six major metropolitan areas in Brazil has grown 72% between 1986 and 2000. At the same time, the average duration of unemployment has risen 43% for the same period. This worrisome information motivates our purpose in this work: study the relation between exit probabilities and unemployment duration. Former studies for Brazil have found a negative relation between those two variables, considered the effect of the existence of a negative unemployment duration dependence. We try to respond below to what extent this is due to the heterogeneity of the unemployment group and to what extent to a true effect of duration dependence, being that question most relevant for policy-oriented decisions. In order to evaluate this matter, we uses the eyeball test proposed in Jackman and Layard (1991) applied to PME data (1984 to 2000). This test analyzes the impact of the average duration variation along the years on the probability of leaving unemployment for different duration classes, separating the effect of heterogeneity from genuine duration dependence. The results contradict former studies for Brazil since we consider that the fall in exit probabilities raises with unemployment duration due to the effect of heterogeneity of unemployed in observed and unobserved characteristics and not to unemployment negative duration dependence. Nevertheless, our findings are in accordance with studies for developed economies, with exception for England.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
Phone: 55 21 3674 7952
Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1998. "On the Detection of State Dependence Using Aggregate Outflow Data: Comments on Previous Studies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1422-1430, September.
- Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002.
"Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium: Is It True or Spurious?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
- van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1996.
"Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence,"
Other publications TiSEM
4374742f-8d86-458d-9ab3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
- Mariângela Penido & Ana Flávia Machado, 2002. "Desemprego: evidências da duração no Brasil metropolitano," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td176, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
- van Ours, J.C. & van den Berg, G., 1997. "Eyeballing state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Other publications TiSEM 123b1d37-4898-4b05-a85b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodrigo Zadra Armond)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.