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Be Careful! A Short Note on a Possible Bias in (Trade) Structural Change Analysys

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  • Massimo TAMBERI

    () (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

I was accustomed to think that the world, in this of "modern economic growth", is becoming less specialized: the invention of new goods is, only partially, a "Schumpeterian" process, in the sense that new goods sometimes replace old ones, but it can also happens that these new goods simply are added to the old ones. Also in modern theoretical literature emerges (at least) the idea that producers use an increasing variety of intermediate goods and that consumers are likely better with more variety of goods in their hands. The process of change in the produced/consumed goods is one of the aspects of the broader spectrum of economic structural change that accompanies economic growth, "structural change" being one of the basic stylized facts of growth according to the Nobel Lecture of Simon Kuznets. In this paper, I will suggest that sector disaggregated data, necessary to study structural change, contain a bias that "hides" this process and causes a drift. By using trade data (because of their higher sector disaggregation richness) I'll first show that there is a tendency for a steady increase in sector concentration. Next, I will argue that this is due to the impossibility to properly register product innovation and finally, through a very rough model and an empirical example of two countries, I will also suggest that this reflects differently in developing and developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo TAMBERI, 2010. "Be Careful! A Short Note on a Possible Bias in (Trade) Structural Change Analysys," Working Papers 341, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:341
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    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/341.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuznets, Simon, 1973. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 247-258, June.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-266, April.
    4. Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco, Martha Denisse Pierola, 2007. "Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins," IHEID Working Papers 20-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    5. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, January.
    6. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruggero Grilli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 287-304, October.
    2. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Aleksandra Parteka & Massimo Tamberi, 2013. "What Determines Export Diversification in the Development Process? Empirical Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 807-826, June.
    4. Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA & Elena AMBROSETTI, 2012. "Links Between Transnationalism Integration and Duration of Residence: The Case of eastern European Migrants in Italy," Working Papers 386, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; International Trade; Structural Change;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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