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Estimating the Correlation of International Equity Markets with Multivariate Extreme and Garch models

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  • Bekiros, S.

    () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Georgoutsos, D.

Abstract

In this paper we study the dependence structure of extreme realization of returns between seven Southeast Asian stock markets and the U.S. Methodologically we apply the Multivariate Extreme Value theory that best suits to the problem under investigation. The main advantage of this approach is that it generates dependence measures even if the multivariate Gaussian distribution does not apply, as the case is for the tails of the high frequency stock index returns distributions. The empirical evidence suggests that Constant and Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH(1,1) models produce estimates of the correlation coefficient with a similar ranking to the ones produced from the Multivariate Extreme Value theory. This evidence is substantiated from a formal clustering analysis. The policy implication of our study is that the benefits from portfolio diversification with assets from the Southeast Asian stock markets are not eroded during crisis periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekiros, S. & Georgoutsos, D., 2006. "Estimating the Correlation of International Equity Markets with Multivariate Extreme and Garch models," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-17, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:06-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    5. Fran├žois Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    6. Starica, Catalin, 1999. "Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 515-553, December.
    7. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Bracker, Kevin & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 443-471.
    9. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Papers 1102.1339, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.

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