IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333206.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of trade elasticities in shaping uncertainty in CGE policy outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Aguiar, Angel
  • Chepeliev, Maksym
  • Golub, Alla
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Soderbery, Anson
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have become a widespread method to assess economy-wide and sectoral impacts of trade policies. While the results of simulations with these models depend on a number of inputs, trade elasticities are of particular interest because of their significant impact on modeled trade patterns, welfare and factor returns. Our objective is to implement and evaluate, within the context of a CGE model, an up-to-date set of trade elasticities, and investigate the role of these parameters in key trade policy modelling uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguiar, Angel & Chepeliev, Maksym & Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Soderbery, Anson & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "The role of trade elasticities in shaping uncertainty in CGE policy outcomes," Conference papers 333206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333206/files/9700.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    2. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    3. Soderbery, Anson, 2018. "Trade elasticities, heterogeneity, and optimal tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 44-62.
    4. Chepeliev, Maksym & Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas W. & Saeed, Wajiha, 2019. "U. S. Trade Policies and Their Impact on Domestic Vegetables, Fruits and Nuts Sector: a Detailed Tariff Line Analysis," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291075, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-level Trade Elasticities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02444897, HAL.
    6. Narayanan, Badri & Thomas Hertel & Mark Horridge, 2010. "Linking Partial and General Equilibrium Models: A GTAP Application Using TASTE," GTAP Technical Papers 3192, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.
    8. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliveira, Paulo Felipe & Cordeiro, Pedro Antero, 2023. "Trade policy analysis in Brazil: Assessing welfare impacts with revised Armington elasticities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    4. Yaghoob Jafari & Mihaly Himics & Wolfgang Britz & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "It is all in the details: A bilateral approach for modelling trade agreements at the tariff line," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(3), pages 415-442, September.
    5. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Are Armington elasticities different across countries and sectors? A European study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 328-342.
    6. Uris L. C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel & Frances C. Moore, 2019. "Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and its Drivers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 101(5), pages 1455-1472, October.
    7. McCleery, Robert & DePaolis, Fernando, 2014. "So you want to build a trade model? Available resources and critical choices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 199-207.
    8. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "Market entry and trade weighted import costs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 982-1013, August.
    9. Nong, Duy & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2018. "Potential impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 387-398.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Li, Minghao & Balistreri, Edward J. & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Nong, Duy & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2017. "Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund in an international context," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 123-134.
    13. Espitia,Alvaro & Rocha,Nadia & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "Covid-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9253, The World Bank.
    14. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Satoshi Nakano & Kazuhiko Nishimura, 2022. "On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports," Papers 2210.05358, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    16. Maksym Chepeliev & Thomas Hertel & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2022. "Cutting Russia's fossil fuel exports: Short‐term economic pain for long‐term environmental gain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3314-3343, November.
    17. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Stephen R. Cray & Antoine Gervais, 2023. "Increasing Marginal Costs, Firm Heterogeneity,and the Gains from "Deep" International Trade Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 23-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Controlling for exporter-level factors when estimating import demand elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    20. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena, 2015. "The sensitivity of climate-economy CGE models to energy-related elasticity parameters: Implications for climate policy design," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 38-52.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.