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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Agricultural Production and Trade

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  • Beach, Robert H.
  • Cai, Yongxia

Abstract

Future changes in the global climate are expected to cause a wide range of impacts on agricultural production, the environment, human health and society. In this study, we apply the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine climate impacts on agricultural production within a consistent framework. We utilize the GTAP v7.1 data base and introduce a detailed breakdown of agricultural crops. We adapt a recursive dynamic version of the ADAGE model with agriculture, biofuels, and land use linkages. ADAGE is capable of examining the impacts of climate change on the global economy and how domestic and global changes may feed through to the U.S. economy. This broad economic framework is combined with information on U.S. and international climate-change impacts from several detailed models focusing on agricultural production, including the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOM-GHG) and the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Our findings on the implications of alternative climate change scenarios for the allocation of agricultural production, markets, and trade can help inform assessments of the net benefits of GHG mitigation as well as their regional distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Beach, Robert H. & Cai, Yongxia, 2013. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Agricultural Production and Trade," Conference papers 332377, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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