Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level
Higher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.
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- Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "2007 U.S Corn Production Risks: What Does History Teach Us?," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 37494, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
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- Hopper, Jared A. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Burton, Robert O., Jr., 2004. "Alfalfa Hay Quality and Alternative Pricing Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(03), December.
- repec:jaa:jagape:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:675-690 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kim B. Anderson & B. Wade Brorsen, 2005. "Marketing Performance of Oklahoma Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1265-1270.
- Lewis A. Hagedorn & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Evelyn V. Colino, 2005. "Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1271-1279.
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