Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level
Higher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.
|Length:||pages 17 pages|
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Box 504, Scobey Hall, Brookings, SD 57007-0895|
Web page: http://www.sdstate.edu/econ/
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- Blank, Steven C. & Orloff, Steve B. & Putnam, Daniel H., 2001. "Sequential Stochastic Production Decisions For A Perennial Crop: The Yield/Quality Tradeoff For Alfalfa Hay," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
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- Skaggs, Rhonda K. & Gorman, William D. & Gardner, J. & Crawford, Terry L., 1999. "Surveys of New Mexico Alfalfa Producers and Dairy Hay Users: Will Growth of the State's Dairy Industry be Limited by Alfalfa Availability?," Research Reports 23956, New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business.
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