IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nccc24/379010.html

Determinants of Beef Market Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Parcell, Joe
  • Franken, Jason

Abstract

Price dynamics are evaluated to assess evidence of alleged price fixing collusion by the four largest U.S. beef packers starting in 2015. Initial variance screens find that during the period in question retail and boxed beef cutout prices increase and stabilize relative to fed cattle prices, consistent with collusive behavior, but on a much smaller scale than a benchmark case of documented collusion in fish fillet pricing. Boxed beef cutout and Kansas fed cattle prices are cointegrated. Speed of adjustment coefficients from VEC models indicate faster and more significant adjustment of boxed beef cutout prices to Kansas fed cattle prices at rates that remain consistent before and during the period of alleged collusion, while the Kansas fed cattle price adjusts slower to the boxed beef cutout price if at all but improves modestly in the period of alleged collusion Overall, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on price dynamics are much larger, and the results suggest collusive behavior to be minimal if any and short lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Parcell, Joe & Franken, Jason, 2024. "Determinants of Beef Market Price Dynamics," 2024 Conference, April 22-23, 2024, St. Louis, Missouri 379010, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc24:379010
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.379010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/379010/files/Parcell_Franken_NCCC-134_2024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.379010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schroeder, Ted C., 1997. "Fed Cattle Spatial Transactions Price Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Fausti, Scott W. & Qasmi, Bashir A. & Li, Jing & Diersen, Matthew A., 2010. "The Effect of the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act on Market Transparency and Grid Price Dispersion," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 1-11, October.
    3. Cheryl J. Wachenheim & Eric A. DeVuyst, 2001. "Strategic response to mandatory reporting legislation in the U.S. livestock and meat industries: Are collusive opportunities enhanced?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 177-195.
    4. Susan Athey & Kyle Bagwell & Chris Sanchirico, 2004. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 317-349.
    5. Cai, Xiaowei & Stiegert, Kyle W. & Koontz, Stephen R., 2011. "Oligopsony Fed Cattle Pricing: _x000B_Did Mandatory Price Reporting Increase Meatpacker Market Power?," 2011 Conference, April 18-19, 2011, St. Louis, Missouri 285343, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Jayson L. Lusk & Glynn T. Tonsor & Lee L. Schulz, 2021. "Beef and Pork Marketing Margins and Price Spreads during COVID‐19," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 4-23, March.
    7. Feinstein, Jonathan S & Block, Michael K & Nold, Frederick C, 1985. "Asymmetric Information and Collusive Behavior in Auction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 441-460, June.
    8. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    9. Lee, Yoonsuk & Ward, Clement E. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2010. "Relationships among Prices across Alternative Marketing Arrangements for Fed Cattle and Hogs," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56282, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Schroeder, Ted C. & Goodwin, Barry K., 1990. "Regional Fed Cattle Price Dynamics," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), pages 1-12, July.
    11. Barry K. Goodwin & Ted C. Schroeder, 1991. "Cointegration Tests and Spatial Price Linkages in Regional Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 452-464.
    12. Harrington, Joseph Jr. & Chen, Joe, 2006. "Cartel pricing dynamics with cost variability and endogenous buyer detection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1185-1212, November.
    13. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joe L. & Sykuta, Michael E. & Fulcher, Christopher L., 2005. "Market Integration: Case Studies of Structural Change," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 163-172, October.
    14. Xiaowei Cai & Kyle W. Stiegert & Stephen R. Koontz, 2011. "Oligopsony Fed Cattle Pricing: Did Mandatory Price Reporting Increase Meatpacker Market Power?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 606-622.
    15. Ward, Clement E., 2008. "Preferential Cattle and Hog Pricing by Packers: Evidence from Mandatory Price Reports," 2008 Annual Meeting, June 23-24, 2008, Big Sky, Montana 37989, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2011. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Hog Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 1-13, May.
    17. Erdal Erol & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Dynamics of Price Adjustment in the U.S. Beef Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    18. Bolotova, Yuliya V., . "Is There Price Fixing in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(4).
    19. Yuliya V. Bolotova, 2022. "Competition issues in the U.S. beef industry," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1340-1358, September.
    20. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
    21. Goodwin, Barry K., 1992. "Forecasting Cattle Prices in the Presence of Structural Change," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 11-22, December.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Pendell, Dustin L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2006. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Fed Cattle Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-12, December.
    24. Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
    25. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bachmeier, Lance J. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2021. "Are there price asymmetries in the U.S. beef market?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    26. Chantale LaCasse, 1995. "Bid Rigging and the Threat of Government Prosecution," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(3), pages 398-417, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joe L. & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2011. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Hog Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 229-241, May.
    2. Cain, JewelwayneS. & Parcell, Joe L., 2014. "Soybean Oil Spatial Price Dynamics," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285824, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Franken, Jason & Parcell, Joe, 2010. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Hog Market Integration," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285331, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. David Imhof & Yavuz Karagök & SAMUEL RUTZ, 2017. "Screening for Bid-rigging. Does it Work?," Working Papers 2017-09, CRESE.
    5. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
    6. Martin Huber & David Imhof & Rieko Ishii, 2022. "Transnational machine learning with screens for flagging bid‐rigging cartels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1074-1114, July.
    7. Joseph E. Harrington, Jr, 2005. "Detecting Cartels," Economics Working Paper Archive 526, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    8. Juan Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero, 2012. "Does Rigidity of Prices Hide Collusion?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 41(3), pages 223-248, November.
    9. Bolotova, Yuliya, 2025. "A Price Screen for Collusion: Applications to the U.S. Beef and Pork Industries," ISU General Staff Papers 202512182152110000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Granlund, David & Rudholm, Niklas, 2023. "Calculating the probability of collusion based on observed price patterns," Umeå Economic Studies 1014, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2023.
    11. Sungill Han & Chanjin Chung & Prasanna Surathkal, 2017. "Impacts of Increased Corn Ethanol Production on Price Asymmetry and Market Linkages in Fed Cattle Markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 378-402, June.
    12. Yuliya Bolotova & Christopher S. McIntosh & Paul E. Patterson & Kalamani Muthusamy, 2010. "Is stabilization of potato price effective? Empirical evidence from the Idaho Russet Burbank potato market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 177-201.
    13. Silveira, Douglas & Vasconcelos, Silvinha & Resende, Marcelo & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "Won’t Get Fooled Again: A supervised machine learning approach for screening gasoline cartels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Imhof, David, 2017. "Simple Statistical Screens to Detect Bid Rigging," FSES Working Papers 484, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    15. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1889-1923, December.
    16. Blank, Steven C. & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., 2016. "Calf and Yearling Prices in the Western United States: Spatial, Quality, and Temporal Factors in Satellite Video Auctions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-23.
    17. Chanjin Chung & Johnna Rushin & Prasanna Surathkal, 2018. "Impact of the livestock mandatory reporting act on the vertical price transmission within the beef supply chain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 562-578, June.
    18. Imhof, David & Karagök, Yavuz & Rutz, Samuel, 2016. "Screening for bid-rigging - does it work?," FSES Working Papers 468, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    19. Silveira, Douglas & de Moraes, Lucas B. & Fiuza, Eduardo P.S. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2023. "Who are you? Cartel detection using unlabeled data," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Pendell, Dustin L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2006. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Fed Cattle Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccc24:379010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.