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Forecasting weekly Canary tomato exports from annual surface data

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  • Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria
  • Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan

Abstract

Sea shipping is the main transport mode used by Canary farmers to export tomatoes to the European markets. Provincial associations of Canary growers negotiate charter fees with the shipping companies for the whole exporting period and, therefore, provide a unified sea transport service. When such a negotiation takes place each year, the individual growers’ decisions about planting surface are usually known. However, the forecasting of the distribution of tomato exports over the whole harvesting period would help Canary associations make more timely and effective decisions. In this paper, a model is proposed to forecast weekly Canary tomato exports conditioned on a given total planting surface. A seasonal model is formulated to deal with the weekly seasonal pattern of Canary tomato yields per hectare by means of evolving splines. Such a model is a useful tool to forecast weekly yields. From these forecasts, weekly tomato exports beyond the end of the sample are also forecast by taking the total planting surface into account. To illustrate the aptness of this framework, the proposed methodology is applied to a weekly series of tomatoes exported to the European markets from 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 harvests.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria & Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan, 2012. "Forecasting weekly Canary tomato exports from annual surface data," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126364, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126364
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/126364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2009. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 194-217.
    2. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-368, July.
    3. Martín Rodríguez, Gloria & Cáceres Hernández, José Juan, 2010. "Splines and the proportion of the seasonal period as a season index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 83-88, January.
    4. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tomato exports; surface; weekly data; seasonal splines; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C22; Q17;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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