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Un modelo para la exportación semanal de tomate de Almería/A model for the Weekly Tomato Exports from Almería

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  • MARTÍN RODRÍGUEZ, G.

    () (Dpto. de Economía de las Instituciones, Estadística Económica y Econometría. Universidad de La Laguna.)

  • CÁCERES HERNÁNDEZ, J. J.

    () (Dpto. de Economía de las Instituciones, Estadística Económica y Econometría. Universidad de La Laguna.)

  • GUIRAO PÉREZ, G

    () (Dpto. de Economía de las Instituciones, Estadística Económica y Econometría. Universidad de La Laguna.)

Abstract

El mercado europeo de tomate para consumo en fresco se encuentra actualmente saturado por la oferta de distintas procedencias y la exportación almeriense es una de las responsables de la situación de sobreoferta en determinadas semanas del periodo de invierno. En este trabajo se propone un modelo que recoge la evolución de la exportación semanal de tomate almeriense desde principios de los 80. El análisis efectuado, inscrito en el marco de los modelos estructurales de series temporales, permite mostrar la utilidad de las funciones splines como alternativa parsimoniosa a los modelos convencionales de la estacionalidad, así como su flexibilidad para recoger variaciones estacionales cuyo periodo no es siempre de la misma longitud. Nowadays, the European fresh tomato market is saturated as a consequence of the growth of supplies from different countries, and Almería exports contribute to create oversupply in some weeks during the winter. In this paper a model is proposed in order to analyse the evolution of weekly Almería tomato exports throughout the last two decades. Such an analysis is carried out inside the frame delimited by the structural approach to time series and the usefulness of spline functions as a parsimonious way of modelling seasonal variations in which the period does not remain the same over time is shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Rodríguez, G. & Cáceres Hernández, J. J. & Guirao Pérez, G, 2005. "Un modelo para la exportación semanal de tomate de Almería/A model for the Weekly Tomato Exports from Almería," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 731-751, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:23_3_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gloria Martín Rodríguez, 2002. "Modelos estructurales en el contexto de las series temporales económicas," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2002-04, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
    2. Harvey, Andrew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Riani, Marco, 1997. "The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 354-368, July.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exportaciones de tomate de Almería; Datos semanales; Splines/Almería tomato exports; Weekly data; Splines.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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