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Zur Reduzierung niederschlagsbedingter Produktionsrisiken mit Wetterderivaten

  • Musshoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin
  • Xu, Wei

In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them the burn analysis, index value simulation and daily simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to analyse the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are located remotely from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences may occur between the pricing methods. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of the pricing methods and give some recommendations for their application. Our results are relevant for producers as well as for potential sellers of weather derivatives. In diesem Beitrag wird eine Niederschlagsoption unter Anwendung der Burn-Analysis, der Index-Value-Simulation und der Daily-Simulation bewertet. Dazu wird auf der Grundlage empirischer Wetterdaten aus Deutschland (Niederschlagsmengen aus Brandenburg) ein Tagesniederschlagsmodell entwickelt. Weiterhin wird eine Dekorrelationsanalyse durchgefuhrt, um das raumliche Basisrisiko von Niederschlagsderivaten zu analysieren. Basierend auf vereinfachenden Annahmen bzgl. der Produktionsfunktion wird das Risikoprofil von Getreideproduzenten in Brandenburg mit und ohne Absicherung gegen zu geringe Niederschlagsmengen in den Monaten April und Mai quantifiziert. Es wird deutlich, dass mit zunehmender Entfernung ein erhebliches Restrisiko bei den Produzenten verbleibt. Die Berechnungen zeigen zudem Unterschiede zwischen den verschiedenen Bewertungsverfahren auf. Es werden Starken und Schwachen der Bewertungsverfahren identifiziert und Empfehlungen für die Anwendung der verschiedenen Methoden abgeleitet. Die hier behandelte Fragestellung ist sowohl fur Landwirte als auch für potenzielle Anbieter von Wetterderivaten relevant. Schlagworte: Wetterrisiko, Wetterderivate, Niederschlagsmodelle, Basisrisiko

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18822
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Paper provided by Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 18822.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:huiawp:18822
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  1. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
  2. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
  3. Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
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