IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemcl/206853.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling of Distributional Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms: an Illustration with Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Durand-Lasserve, Olivier
  • Campagnolo, Lorenza
  • Chateau, Jean
  • Dellink, Rob

Abstract

This report develops an analytical framework that assesses the macroeconomic, environmental and distributional consequences of energy subsidy reforms. The framework is applied to the case of Indonesia to study the consequences in this country of a gradual phase out of all energy consumption subsidies between 2012 and 2020. The energy subsidy estimates used as inputs to this modelling analysis are those calculated by the International Energy Agency, using a synthetic indicator known as “price gaps”. The analysis relies on simulations made with an extended version of the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. The phase out of energy consumption subsidies was simulated under three stylised redistribution schemes: direct payment on a per household basis, support to labour incomes, and subsidies on food products. The modelling results in this report indicate that if Indonesia were to remove its fossil fuel and electricity consumption subsidies, it would record real GDP gains of 0.4% to 0.7% in 2020, according to the redistribution scheme envisaged. The redistribution through direct payment on a per household basis performs best in terms of GDP gains. The aggregate gains for consumers in terms of welfare are higher, ranging from 0.8% to 1.6% in 2020. Both GDP and welfare gains arise from a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors resulting from phasing out energy subsidies. Meanwhile, a redistribution scheme through food subsidies tends to create other inefficiencies. The simulations show that the redistribution scheme ultimately matters in determining the overall distributional performance of the reform. Cash transfers, and to a lesser extent food subsidies, can make the reform more attractive for poorer households and reduce poverty. Mechanisms that compensate households via payments proportional to labour income are, on the contrary, more beneficial to higher income households and increase poverty. This is because households with informal labour earnings, which are not eligible for these payments, are more represented among the poor. The analysis also shows that phasing out energy subsidies is projected to reduce Indonesian CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by 10.8% to 12.6% and GHG emissions by 7.9% to 8.3%, in 2020 in the various scenarios, with respect to the baseline. These emission reductions exclude emissions from deforestation, which are large but highly uncertain and for which the model cannot make reliable projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Campagnolo, Lorenza & Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob, 2015. "Modelling of Distributional Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms: an Illustration with Indonesia," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206853, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:206853
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.206853
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206853/files/NDL2015-068.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.206853?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheon, Andrew & Urpelainen, Johannes & Lackner, Maureen, 2013. "Why do governments subsidize gasoline consumption? An empirical analysis of global gasoline prices, 2002–2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 382-390.
    2. Reimer, Jeff & Hertel, Thomas, 2003. "International Cross Section Estimates of Demand for Use in the GTAP Model," GTAP Working Papers 1190, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Annabelle Mourougane, 2010. "Phasing Out Energy Subsidies in Indonesia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 808, OECD Publishing.
    4. World Bank, 2006. "Making the New Indonesia Work for the Poor," World Bank Publications - Reports 8172, The World Bank Group.
    5. World Bank, 2011. "Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2011," World Bank Publications - Reports 27253, The World Bank Group.
    6. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
    7. Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Reconciliation of the GTAP and Household Survey Data," GTAP Research Memoranda 1408, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. Dartanto, Teguh, 2013. "Reducing fuel subsidies and the implication on fiscal balance and poverty in Indonesia: A simulation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 117-134.
    9. Jean Château & Bertrand Magné & Laura Cozzi, 2014. "Economic Implications of the IEA Efficient World Scenario," OECD Environment Working Papers 64, OECD Publishing.
    10. Benedict CLEMENTS & Hong‐Sang JUNG & Sanjeev GUPTA, 2007. "Real And Distributive Effects Of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case Of Indonesia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(2), pages 220-237, June.
    11. Riyana Miranti & Yogi Vidyattama & Erick Hansnata & Rebecca Cassells & Alan Duncan, 2013. "Trends in Poverty and Inequality in Decentralising Indonesia," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 148, OECD Publishing.
    12. Diop, Ndiame, 2014. "Why Is Reducing Energy Subsidies a Prudent, Fair, and Transformative Policy for Indonesia?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 140, pages 1-6, April.
    13. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau, 2014. "Greenhouse gases mitigation potential and economic efficiency of phasing-out fossil fuel subsidies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 71-88.
    14. Bertrand Magné & Jean Chateau & Rob Dellink, 2014. "Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 677-690, April.
    15. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Wawan Hermawan & Djoni Hartono & Kindy R. Sjahrir, 2010. "Scenarios for Climate Change Mitigation from the Energy Sector in Indonesia: The Role of Fiscal Instruments," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201005, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2010.
    16. Webster, Mort & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2008. "Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2785-2798, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue & Jules Linden & Denisa Sologon, 2023. "Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    2. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin & Bazilian, Morgan, 2017. "Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and their impacts on firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 617-623.
    3. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    4. Ben Westmore, 2017. "Sharing the Benefits of China’s Growth by Providing Opportunities to All," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-33, October.
    5. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin, 2017. "Energy price variation and competitiveness: Firm level evidence from Indonesia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 242-254.
    6. Jon Sampedro & Iñaki Arto & Mikel González-Eguino, 2017. "Implications of Switching Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Solar: A Case Study for the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Robert J. R. Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo, 2016. "Ecological Modernization in Japan: The Role of Interest Rate Subsidies and Voluntary Pollution Control Agreements," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 66-88, Fall.
    8. Stefan Bakker & Gary Haq & Karl Peet & Sudhir Gota & Nikola Medimorec & Alice Yiu & Gail Jennings & John Rogers, 2019. "Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Agboje, A., 2018. "Implication of Switching Fuel Subsidy on Households Welfare in Nigeria," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275938, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Hosoe,Nobuhiro, 2022. "Illicit Schemes : Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and the Role of Tax Evasion and Smuggling," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9907, The World Bank.
    11. Jun E Rentschler & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2017. "Illicit dealings: Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and the role of tax evasion and smuggling," GRIPS Discussion Papers 17-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    12. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Ilai Levin & Alessia Pagani & Mauro Pisu & Åsa Johansson, 2022. "A framework to decarbonise the economy," OECD Economic Policy Papers 31, OECD Publishing.
    13. José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral López-Otero, 2018. "Energy Tax Reform and Poverty Alleviation in Mexico," Working Papers 1801, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    14. Roman Mendelevitch, 2018. "Testing supply-side climate policies for the global steam coal market—can they curb coal consumption?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 57-72, September.
    15. Lekavičius, V. & Bobinaitė, V. & Galinis, A. & Pažėraitė, A., 2020. "Distributional impacts of investment subsidies for residential energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Maulidia, Martha & Dargusch, Paul & Ashworth, Peta & Ardiansyah, Fitrian, 2019. "Rethinking renewable energy targets and electricity sector reform in Indonesia: A private sector perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 231-247.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scobie, Michelle, 2017. "Fossil fuel reform in developing states: The case of Trinidad and Tobago, a petroleum producing small Island developing State," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 265-273.
    2. Kelly Bruin & Aykut Mert Yakut, 2023. "The Impacts of Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Increasing Carbon Taxation in Ireland," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 741-782, August.
    3. Hartono, Djoni & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2008. "The economy-wide impact of controlling energy consumption in Indonesia: An analysis using a Social Accounting Matrix framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1404-1419, April.
    4. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fahman Fathurrahman & Bora Kat & Uğur Soytaṣ, 2017. "Simulating Indonesian fuel subsidy reform: a social accounting matrix analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 591-615, August.
    6. Saeed Solaymani, 2016. "Impacts of energy subsidy reform on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2707-2723, November.
    7. Herbert W. V. Hasudungan & Sulthon S. Sabaruddin, 2016. "The Impact of Fiscal Reform on Indonesian Macroeconomy: A CGE Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(3), pages 181-202, September.
    8. Djoni Hartono & Tony Irawan & Ahmad Komarulzaman, 2014. "Energy Pricing Policies in Indonesia: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," EcoMod2014 7344, EcoMod.
    9. Bah, Muhammad Maladoh & Saari, M. Yusof, 2020. "Quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in Saudi Arabia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma, 2012. "Fossil fuel subsidy removal and inadequate public power supply: Implications for businesses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-5.
    11. Djoni Hartono & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Tony Irawan & Anda Nugroho, 2020. "Phasing out Energy Subsidies to Improve Energy Mix: A Dead End," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Robert J. R. Elliott & Toshihiro Okubo, 2016. "Ecological Modernization in Japan: The Role of Interest Rate Subsidies and Voluntary Pollution Control Agreements," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 66-88, Fall.
    13. Monasterolo, Irene & Raberto, Marco, 2019. "The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 355-370.
    14. Slim DALI & Rodolphe BOCQUET & Edouard PLUS & Olivier RECH, 2017. "Vulnérabilités énergétiques et conséquences macroéconomiques en Indonésie," Working Paper 1e6889ce-854e-4915-84d6-2, Agence française de développement.
    15. Harro van Asselt & Kati Kulovesi, 2017. "Seizing the opportunity: tackling fossil fuel subsidies under the UNFCCC," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 357-370, June.
    16. Jiang, Zhujun & Ouyang, Xiaoling & Huang, Guangxiao, 2015. "The distributional impacts of removing energy subsidies in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 111-122.
    17. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Campagnolo, Lorenza & Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob, 2014. "Distributional impacts of energy consumption subsidy phase out in Indonesia: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Conference papers 332451, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Roman Mendelevitch, 2018. "Testing supply-side climate policies for the global steam coal market—can they curb coal consumption?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 57-72, September.
    19. Chepeliev, Maksym & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "Global fossil-fuel subsidy reform and Paris Agreement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Ferri, Javier & Moltó, María Luisa & Uriel, Ezequiel, 2005. "Time Use, Computable General Equilibrium and Tax Policy Analysis," Conference papers 331322, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:206853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.