Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?
Recent trade evolutions credit China with a large and growing market potential, and explain the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign producers. In 2007 one tenth of internationally traded products were shipped to China. The present paper aims to determine the countries that profit and suffer the most from the recent expansion of the Chinese market. We use an econometric shift-share methodology that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporter's performance. Export dynamics specific to each country (exporter) are estimated for the Chinese market and compared to those of the global market, for all internationally traded products and agri-food products alone. We estimate the contribution of countries' geographical and sectoral structure, and their export performance to the evolution of their market shares, and differentiate between changes in export volumes and prices.
|Date of creation:||18 Sep 2012|
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