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Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?


  • Cheptea, Angela


Recent trade evolutions credit China with a large and growing market potential, and explain the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign producers. In 2007 one tenth of internationally traded products were shipped to China. The present paper aims to determine the countries that profit and suffer the most from the recent expansion of the Chinese market. We use an econometric shift-share methodology that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporter's performance. Export dynamics specific to each country (exporter) are estimated for the Chinese market and compared to those of the global market, for all internationally traded products and agri-food products alone. We estimate the contribution of countries' geographical and sectoral structure, and their export performance to the evolution of their market shares, and differentiate between changes in export volumes and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheptea, Angela, 2012. "Who gains and who loses from China’s growth?," 131st Seminar, September 18-19, 2012, Prague, Czech Republic 135788, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa131:135788

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-374, June.
    2. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2009. "The Export Performance of the Euro Area countries in the period 1996-2007," MPRA Paper 20263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2014. "European export performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 25-58, February.
    4. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard, 2007. "Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4302, The World Bank.
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    6. Lionel Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2008. "Specialization across varieties and North-South competition," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 51-91, January.
    7. Cheptea, Angela, 2011. "Who Gains and Who Loses from China's Growth?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114299, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2008. "The Portuguese Export Performance in Perspective: A Constant Market Share Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness: Errata," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1203-1203, December.
    10. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Backinezos, Constantina & Georgiou, Evangelia, 2010. "Export performance, competitiveness and commodity composition," MPRA Paper 31997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "The World Market: Market Shares and Export Performances," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 231.
    12. Ricardo C. Gazel & R. Keith Schwer, 1998. "Growth of International Exports among the States: Can a Modified Shift-Share Analysis Explain it?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(2), pages 185-204, August.
    13. Buti,Marco & Deroose,Servaas & Gaspar,Vitor & Martins,João Nogueira (ed.), 2010. "The Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9789279098420, March.
    14. Andrea Finicelli & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 93-113, April.
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    1. Cheptea, Angela, 2011. "Who Gains and Who Loses from China's Growth?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114299, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item


    International trade; Export performance; Market shares; Shift-Share; China; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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