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Experts’ estimates of future uptake of low-carbon agricultural practices


  • Eory, Vera
  • Topp, Cairistiona F. E.
  • Butler, Adam
  • Bond, Clare E.


Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture has been so far relying mostly on voluntary implementation; policy, in their attempt to step up effort in agriculture, requires more reliable information on mitigation practices, including their current and potential future uptake. Expert elicitation techniques can estimates where otherwise the data gaps exist. A four stage Deplhi expert elicitation was carried out to estimate the uptake and its uncertainty for five mitigation practices under three policy scenarios in Scotland. The current uptake was estimated to be 5-68%, the uptake in 10 years͛ time with no policy change was between 10-70% and the future uptake with targeted policy was 50-83%. The uncertainty (difference between lower and upper quartile estimates) was between 6-40%. The highest policy effect was estimated to be expected from targeting nitrification inhibitor uptake. Policy supporting improved land drainage and regulatory approaches for nitrogen management practices could achieve only lower policy effect (13-22%) but with a higher confidence. The elicitation also highlighted that clear definitions of farming practices are very important and expert estimates would ideally involve stakeholders from different backgrounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Eory, Vera & Topp, Cairistiona F. E. & Butler, Adam & Bond, Clare E., 2018. "Experts’ estimates of future uptake of low-carbon agricultural practices," 92nd Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2018, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 273483, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc18:273483
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273483

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Vera Eory & Cairistiona F. E. Topp & Adam Butler & Dominic Moran, 2018. "Addressing Uncertainty in Efficient Mitigation of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 627-645, September.
    2. Christensen, Tove & Pedersen, Anders Branth & Nielsen, Helle Oersted & Mørkbak, Morten Raun & Hasler, Berit & Denver, Sigrid, 2011. "Determinants of farmers' willingness to participate in subsidy schemes for pesticide-free buffer zones--A choice experiment study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(8), pages 1558-1564, June.
    3. Glenka, Klaus & Eorya, Vera & Colombo, Sergio & Barnes, Andrew Peter, 2014. "Adoption of greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture: an analysis of dairy farmers’ preferences and adoption behaviour," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 170358, Agricultural Economics Society.
    4. Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal & Myles Allen & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christopher B. Field & Gary Yohe, 2013. "Risk management and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 447-450, May.
    5. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
    6. Glenk, Klaus & Eory, Vera & Colombo, Sergio & Barnes, Andrew, 2014. "Adoption of greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture: An analysis of dairy farmers' perceptions and adoption behaviour," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 49-58.
    7. Moran, Dominic & MacLeod, Michael J. & Wall, Eileen & Eory, Vera & McVittie, Alistair & Barnes, Andrew Peter & Rees, Bob & Smith, Peter & Moxey, Andrew, 2009. "Marginal abatement cost curves for UK agriculture, forestry, land-use and land-use change sector out to 2022," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51065, Agricultural Economics Society.
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