Wildfire and Severe Drought Effects on Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) Persistence

CRP persistence, the length of time land under CRP land management practices remains under similar land management after contract expiration, ranges between 15 to 66% of previously enrolled land. Thus, longer-term environmental benefits from CRP on the land depend on how the land is managed after contract expiration. Research has examined what influences CRP persistence, but little literature extensively examines the effect of environmental factors on CRP persistence. We examine the influence of wildfires and drought, as well as surrounding land use, on CRP persistence. To study this, we constructed a 10-year unique geodatabase at the CRP parcel level and used a mixed effects Weibull accelerated failure time model (AFTM) to examine CRP persistence. We find that CRP persistence averages about 3 years, and most conversions of land practices away from those under prior CRP contracts happen within the first 2 years after contract expiration. CRP persistence is higher for expired CRP parcels located in regions with long-term to mid-range drought conditions, parcels that have been burnt or been in proximity to a megafire event. CRP persistence increases for every increase in percentage of grassland and open water for the surrounding land and decreases when bordered by crops. There is a need for policy intervention within the first two years after contract expiration to ensure the environmental benefits of conservation are retained in the longer term. This can be achieved through education to encourage landowners to retain CRP-based practices, enhancing wildfire mitigation land management efforts on both CRP and post-CRP lands, as well as increasing the likelihood of reenrollment for CRP lands classified as risky areas, such as those that are less connected or surrounded by crop production, located in wetlands, and during periods of short-term drought.