Flow and structural effects in asymmetric forest transitions under climate and economic pressure: A regime-switching approach

Forest landscapes face persistent pressure from climate variability, economic change, and demographic dynamics. Forest policies must address not only where forest change occurs, but also the distinct mechanisms shaping forest loss and recovery. This study develops a structural disequilibrium framework to model two behavioral regimes: cropland-induced forest loss and forest gain. Using a fixed-effects Full-Information Maximum Likelihood (FE-FIML) approach, we jointly estimate flow effects (direct impacts of drivers on annual forest–cropland conversion) and structural effects (probabilities of alignment with the forest loss and gain regimes). The analysis integrates economic and demographic structures, land stocks, seasonal climate variability, and fire disturbances into a joint model for the contiguous U.S. (2001–2023). Results show that factors operate asymmetrically across forest loss and recovery, with environmental covariates operating primarily through structural effects despite limited flow impacts. Simulations of plausible economic and climate shocks reveal highly heterogeneous regional responses. By distinguishing between flow and structural mechanisms, the framework improves the targeting of interventions to prevent forest loss, promote recovery, and strengthen forest resilience.