Enhancing Conservation Reserve Program Outcomes Through Durability-Informed Enrollment Targeting

We evaluate the durability of conservation outcomes from the USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest payment for ecosystem services program in the United States. Program durability, as indicated by the longevity or persistence of perennial vegetative cover, is important given the ability of such conservation cover to provide and sustain key ecosystem services relative to croplands. We use point-level data on land use and land cover (NRI) to track outcomes over time. The data provides us with a unique long-term perspective into particularly the early entrants into the program, for which we are able to track post-CRP outcomes for 20 years. We find that the CRP has expanded conservation cover by incentivizing landowners to replace croplands with non-crop grass and tree cover. Average durability (survival time) of such conservation cover post-CRP is about 4.2 years, with most points in our sample reverting back to cropland within the first year. Factors such as location, biomass productivity, drought, proportion of irrigated areas in landscape, prevalence of land abandonment each contribute expected durability. We discuss implications for program design and highlight tradeoffs with additionality and program cost effectiveness when policymakers target durability.