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Uncovering the Key Bilateral Trade Linkages in the U.S. Domestic Food Supply Chain through Disruption Simulations

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  • Mo, Taejun
  • Dall’erba, Sandy

Abstract

This paper simulates counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the impact of the bilateral trade linkage disruptions on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system. First, it estimates the relationship between bilateral trade linkage disruptions and agricultural commodity flows using an econometric gravity model. Second, it identifies key state-to-state trade linkages whose disruption significantly affects domestic trade and national welfare. Lastly, we extend the analysis to the state level to measure the consequences of uniform disruptions to states' interstate trade linkages. The findings provide insights for mitigating the effects of trade linkage disruptions and transport cost shocks on the domestic food supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Mo, Taejun & Dall’erba, Sandy, 2025. "Uncovering the Key Bilateral Trade Linkages in the U.S. Domestic Food Supply Chain through Disruption Simulations," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361042, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361042
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361042
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