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Exploring the Causes of Cross-State Variation in Overpayments of Monthly SNAP Benefits

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  • Issar, Akash
  • Valizadeh, Pourya
  • Bryant, Henry
  • Fischer, Bart

Abstract

Overpayments of monthly benefits in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) vary widely across U.S. states—from $1.04 million in Wyoming to $865.4 million in California in fiscal year (FY) 2022—highlighting substantial differences in benefit delivery. This paper investigates the determinants of cross-state variation in SNAP overpayments per recipient from FY 2003 to FY 2019. Employing a LASSO variable selection framework, we assess the contribution of state economic conditions, caseload characteristics, and SNAP administrative policies—including simplified reporting, certification periods, and benefit calculation parameters. We find that the LASSO selected economic, SNAP caseload characteristics and SNAP policies explains 2.3%, 4.6% and 6.1% of the explained variation in overpayments, respectively, and state and year fixed effects account for 50% of the explained variation in overpayment of SNAP benefits. To explore the potential benefits of alternative administrative practices, we simulate FY 2019 overpayments under a counterfactual scenario in which all states adopt the characteristics of Idaho—the state with the lowest observed overpayment. The simulation suggests that total national overpayments could have been reduced by $1.4 billion (38%) relative to the observed $3.6 billion. These findings underscore the potential for reduction in administrative burden and targeted policy design to enhance SNAP payment accuracy rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Issar, Akash & Valizadeh, Pourya & Bryant, Henry & Fischer, Bart, 2025. "Exploring the Causes of Cross-State Variation in Overpayments of Monthly SNAP Benefits," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360878, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360878
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360878
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melvin, Shamar & Smith, Travis A., 2022. "From paper to plastic: How the transition to EBT affected SNAP enrollment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
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    4. Peter Ganong & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2018. "The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 153-176, November.
    5. Valizadeh, Pourya & Issar, Akash & Bryant, Henry, 2025. "Heterogeneous effects of economic cycles across the income distribution: A common factor model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    6. Pourya Valizadeh & Bart L. Fischer & Henry L. Bryant, 2024. "SNAP enrollment cycles: New insights from heterogeneous panel models with cross‐sectional dependence," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 354-381, January.
    7. Jacob Alex Klerman & Caroline Danielson, 2016. "Can the Economy Explain the Explosion in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Caseload? An Assessment of the Local-level Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 92-112.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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