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Forecast and Simulation Analysis of Mexican Meat Consumption at the Table Cut Level: Impacts on U.S. Exports

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  • Lopez, Jose Antonio
  • Malaga, Jaime E.

Abstract

An analysis of current and forecasted Mexican meat consumption and imports is presented at the table cut level of disaggregation. Unlike previous studies, this study uses adult equivalence scales, a price imputation approach, a consistent censored demand system, and estimation techniques from stratified sampling. The results indicate that most Mexican consumption and imports of table cuts of meats grow at different rates. In addition, Mexico seems to be following the U.S. preferences for beef cuts, but it does not seem to be following the U.S. preferences for chicken cuts. The study may help U.S. and Canadian meat exporters in forecasting future exports to Mexico, conducting long-term meat investment decisions, or identifying trends in the consumption of specific table cuts of meats.

Suggested Citation

  • Lopez, Jose Antonio & Malaga, Jaime E., 2009. "Forecast and Simulation Analysis of Mexican Meat Consumption at the Table Cut Level: Impacts on U.S. Exports," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 51986, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:51986
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Gould & Hector Villarreal, 2002. "Adult equivalence scales and food expenditures: an application to Mexican beef and pork purchases," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1075-1088.
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    5. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Steven T. Yen, 1999. "Two-Step Estimation of a Censored System of Equations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 972-982.
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    7. Diansheng Dong & Brian W. Gould, 2000. "Quality versus quantity in Mexican household poultry and pork purchases," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 333-355.
    8. Lopez, Jose Antonio & Malaga, Jaime E., 2009. "Estimation of a Censored Demand System in Stratified Sampling: An Analysis of Mexican Meat Demand at the Table Cut Level," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46294, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
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    14. Steven Yen & Kamhon Kan & Shew-Jiuan Su, 2002. "Household demand for fats and oils: two-step estimation of a censored demand system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1799-1806.
    15. Mykel R. Taylor, 2009. "Does Food Safety Information Affect Consumers' Decision to Purchase Mean and Poultry? Evidence from U.S. Household Level Data," Working Papers 2009-11, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    16. Diansheng Dong & J.S. Shonkwiler & Oral Capps, 1998. "Estimation of Demand Functions Using Cross-Sectional Household Data: The Problem Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 466-473.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast of Mexican meat consumption; forecast of Mexican imports; U.S. meat exports to Mexico; Mexican meat demand elasticities; meat analysis at the table cut level; censored demand system; two-step estimation procedure; stratified sampling; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Q11;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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