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Assessing the Robustness of Predictions in Spatially Explicit Models of Land Use

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  • De Pinto, Alessandro
  • Nelson, Gerald C.

Abstract

We propose an information-theoretic approach to assess the performance of a discrete choice model used to analyze land use and land use change. We show that our disaggregated measure can be used to compare robustness of predictions across land use categories and across models. Furthermore, a proper reformulation of the problem shows that a disaggregated (observation by observation) log-likelihood lends itself to an information theoretic interpretation, which allows comparisons performance across models.

Suggested Citation

  • De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2006. "Assessing the Robustness of Predictions in Spatially Explicit Models of Land Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21307, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21307
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997. "Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
    2. John R. Hauser, 1978. "Testing the Accuracy, Usefulness, and Significance of Probabilistic Choice Models: An Information-Theoretic Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 406-421, June.
    3. John R. Hauser, 1977. "Testing the Accuracy," Discussion Papers 286, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    4. Gerald Nelson & Alessandro De Pinto & Virginia Harris & Steven Stone, 2004. "Land Use and Road Improvements: A Spatial Perspective," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 27(3), pages 297-325, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro De Pinto & Gerald C. Nelson, 2007. "Modelling Deforestation and Land‐Use Change: Sparse Data Environments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 502-516, September.

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    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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