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The Dynamics Of Land-Cover Change In Western Honduras: Spatial Autocorrelation And Temporal Variation

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  • Munroe, Darla K.
  • Southworth, Jane
  • Tucker, Catherine M.

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric analysis of land-cover change in western Honduras. Ground-truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996, net reforestation occurred in the 1,015.12 km2 study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear-cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987-1996. Thus, the observed land-cover changes most likely represent a complex mosaic of changing land-use patterns across time and space. We estimate a random-effects probit model to capture drivers of land-cover change that are spatial, temporal or both. We employ two techniques to correct for spatial error dependence in econometric analysis suitable to qualitative dependent variables. Lastly, we simulate the impact of anticipated changes in transportation costs on land cover. We find that market accessibility, increase in national coffee prices, and agricultural suitability are the most important determinants of recent land-cover change.

Suggested Citation

  • Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2001. "The Dynamics Of Land-Cover Change In Western Honduras: Spatial Autocorrelation And Temporal Variation," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20759, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Currie,J. M., 1981. "The Economic Theory of Agricultural Land Tenure," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521236348, May.
    2. Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997. "Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
    3. Parker, Dawn Cassandra, 2000. "Edge-Effect Externalities: Theoretical And Empirical Implications Of Spatial Heterogeneity," Dissertations 11940, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. H. Kelejian, Harry & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2001. "On the asymptotic distribution of the Moran I test statistic with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 219-257, September.
    5. Moran, Emilio F. & Packer, Alissa & Brondizio, Eduardo & Tucker, Joanna, 1996. "Restoration of vegetation cover in the eastern Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 41-54, July.
    6. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
    7. Gould, Brian W. & Dong, Diansheng, 2000. "The Decision Of When To Buy A Frequently Purchased Good: A Multi-Period Probit Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
    8. Deacon Robert T., 1995. "Assessing the Relationship between Government Policy and Deforestation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Geoghegan, Jacqueline & Wainger, Lisa A. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 1997. "Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 251-264, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2002. "Correcting For Spatial Effects In Limited Dependent Variable Regression: Assessing The Value Of "Ad-Hoc" Techniques," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19782, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Nicolas Dendoncker & Mark Rounsevell & Patrick Bogaert, 2005. "Empirically Derived Suitability Maps to Downscale Aggregated Land Use Data," ERSA conference papers ersa05p59, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Muller, Daniel & Zeller, Manfred, 2002. "Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 333-354, November.
    4. De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2004. "A Dynamic Model Of Land Use Change With Spatially Explicit Data," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20314, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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