The sources of long-term economic growth in Indonesia, 1880-2007
This paper initiates discussion about the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth to Indonesia’s long-term economic growth. It presents new time series estimates of GDP, capital stock and education-adjusted employment, and offers a growth accounting approach that estimates the contribution of conventional factor inputs to GDP growth during 1880-2007. For most of the period, the growth of employment, educational attainment and particularly capital stock explained almost all of long-term output growth, and TFP growth was marginal. During the key growth periods 1900-29 and 1967-97, TFP growth was on balance negative, respectively marginally positive. However, the contribution of TFP growth was substantial during some sub-periods, particularly 1933-41, 1951-61, 1967-73 and 2000-07. Each of these followed a major economic downturn that slowed capital stock growth and required a more efficient use of productive resources, assisted by changes in economic policy and institutions that enhanced productivity and efficiency.
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