IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/f/pka754.html
   My authors  Follow this author

Heikki Kauppi

Personal Details

First Name:Heikki
Middle Name:
Last Name:Kauppi
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pka754
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]

Affiliation

Taloustieteen laitos
Turun Kauppakorkeakoulu
Turun Yliopisto

Turku, Finland
http://www.tse.fi/FI/yksikot/laitoksetjaaineet/ktt/

: +358 2 333 51

+358 2 333 51
RePEc:edi:kttsefi (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Heikki Kauppi, 2010. "Yield-Curve Based Probability Forecasts of U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 57, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  2. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2009. "The Excess Power Puzzle of the EU Budget," CEPR Discussion Papers 7220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room in Explaining EU Budget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 38, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  4. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room Explaining EU Bydget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 1161, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  5. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  6. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Voting Rules and Budget Allocation in an Enlarged EU," Discussion Papers 2, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  7. Markus Haavio & Heikki Kauppi, 2006. "House price fluctuations and residential sorting," 2006 Meeting Papers 774, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Kauppi, Heikki & Koskela, Erkki & Stenbacka, Rune, 2004. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Investment Under Product and Labour Market Imperfections," IZA Discussion Papers 1058, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Heikki Kauppi & Erkki Koskela & Rune Stenbacka, 2004. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Capital Intensity Under Product and Labor Market Imperfections," CESifo Working Paper Series 1343, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Heikki Kauppi & Markus Haavio, 2003. "Housing Markets and Labor Mobility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 164, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Markus Haavio and Heikki Kauppi, 2001. "Housing Markets, Liquidity Constraints and Labor Mobility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 186, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Kauppi, H., 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a Conditional Vector Autoregressive Process with a Linear Time Trend," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 497, Department of Economics.
  13. Kauppi, H., 1999. "Essays on Econometrics of Cointegration," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 84, Department of Economics.

Articles

  1. Heikki Kauppi, 2012. "Predicting the Direction of the Fed's Target Rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, January.
  2. Heikki Kauppi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-791, November.
  3. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgren, Mika, 2007. "Voting rules and budget allocation in the enlarged EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 693-706, September.
  4. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "What determines EU decision making? Needs, power or both?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 221-266, July.
  5. Kauppi, Heikki, 2004. "On The Robustness Of Hypothesis Testing Based On Fully Modified Vector Autoregression When Some Roots Are Almost One," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 341-359, April.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Heikki Kauppi, 2010. "Yield-Curve Based Probability Forecasts of U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 57, Aboa Centre for Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    2. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.

  2. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2009. "The Excess Power Puzzle of the EU Budget," CEPR Discussion Papers 7220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Bordignon & Simona Scabrosetti, 2016. "The Political Economy of Financing the EU budget," Working papers 42, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.

  3. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room in Explaining EU Budget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 38, Aboa Centre for Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2009. "The Excess Power Puzzle of the EU Budget," CEPR Discussion Papers 7220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "The Impact of Council Voting Rules on EU Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 1162, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

  4. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room Explaining EU Bydget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 1161, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Schmidt, 2016. "Internal migration and EU regional policy transfer payments: A panel data analysis for the EU-28 member countries," ERSA conference papers ersa16p172, European Regional Science Association.

  5. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    2. Moysiadis, Theodoros & Fokianos, Konstantinos, 2014. "On binary and categorical time series models with feedback," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 209-228.
    3. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
    4. Ratcliff, Ryan, 2013. "The “probability of recession”: Evaluating probabilistic and non-probabilistic forecasts from probit models of U.S. recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 311-315.
    5. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Testing an autoregressive structure in binary time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1460-1473.
    6. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

  6. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Voting Rules and Budget Allocation in an Enlarged EU," Discussion Papers 2, Aboa Centre for Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Voting Rules and Budget Allocation in an Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgren, Mika, 2007. "Voting rules and budget allocation in the enlarged EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 693-706, September.
    3. Massimo Bordignon & Simona Scabrosetti, 2016. "The Political Economy of Financing the EU budget," Working papers 42, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.

  7. Kauppi, Heikki & Koskela, Erkki & Stenbacka, Rune, 2004. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Investment Under Product and Labour Market Imperfections," IZA Discussion Papers 1058, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    Cited by:

    1. Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2004. "Multihoming in the Market for Payment Media: Evidence from Young Finnish Consumers," Discussion Papers 893, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Mikko Puhakka, 2005. "Equilibrium dynamics under lump-sum taxation in an exchange economy with skewed endowments," Macroeconomics 0508033, EconWPA.
    3. Jokivuolle, Esa & Lanne, Markku, 2004. "Trading Nokia : the roles of the Helsinki vs the New York stock exchanges," Research Discussion Papers 26/2004, Bank of Finland.
    4. Mälkönen, Ville, 2004. "The efficiency implications of financial conglomeration," Research Discussion Papers 17/2004, Bank of Finland.
    5. Antti Suvanto & Juhana Hukkinen, 2005. "Stable price level and changing prices," Macroeconomics 0508034, EconWPA.
    6. Puhakka, Mikko, 2004. "Equilibrium dynamics under lump-sum taxation in an exchange economy with skewed endowments," Research Discussion Papers 29/2004, Bank of Finland.
    7. Joanna Tyrowicz, 2009. "When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe CEECs. Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession," Working Papers 2009-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework," Research Discussion Papers 31/2004, Bank of Finland.
    9. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderström, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework," Macroeconomics 0508032, EconWPA.
    10. Suvanto, Antti & Hukkinen, Juhana, 2004. "Stable price level and changing prices," Research Discussion Papers 28/2004, Bank of Finland.

  8. Heikki Kauppi & Erkki Koskela & Rune Stenbacka, 2004. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Capital Intensity Under Product and Labor Market Imperfections," CESifo Working Paper Series 1343, CESifo Group Munich.

    Cited by:

    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December.
    2. Helge Berger & Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Labor and Product Market Deregulation; Partial, Sequential, or Simultaneous Reform?," IMF Working Papers 05/227, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Helge Berger & Stephan Danninger, 2007. "The Employment Effects of Labor and Product Market Deregulation and Their Implications for Structural Reform," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(3), pages 591-619, July.

  9. Heikki Kauppi & Markus Haavio, 2003. "Housing Markets and Labor Mobility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 164, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wasmer, Etienne & Zenou, Yves, 2005. "Equilibrium Search Unemployment with Explicit Spatial Frictions," IZA Discussion Papers 1465, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Amihai Glazer & Vesa Kanniainen & Panu Poutvaara, 2003. "Income Taxes, Property Values, and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 1075, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Indermit Gill & Johannes Koettl & Truman Packard, 2013. "Full employment: a distant dream for Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-34, December.

  10. Markus Haavio and Heikki Kauppi, 2001. "Housing Markets, Liquidity Constraints and Labor Mobility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 186, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rady, Sven & Ortalo-Magné, François, 2002. "Homeownership," Discussion Papers in Economics 28, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, "undated". "Homeownership: Volatile Housing Prices, Low Labor Mobility and High Income Dispersion," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-04, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    3. Mayes, David G. & Virén, Matti, 2000. "Asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2000, Bank of Finland.
    4. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 2000. "Forecasting the real US/DEM exchange rate : TAR vs. AR," Research Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland.
    5. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2000. "The credit channel of monetary policy and housing markets : International empirical evidence," Research Discussion Papers 14/2000, Bank of Finland.
    6. Trond Husby & Henri L. F. de Groot & Marjan W. Hofkes & Tatiana Filatova, 2018. "Flood protection and endogenous sorting of households: the role of credit constraints," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 147-168, February.
    7. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 2002. "Homeownership: Low Household Mobility, Volatile Housing Prices, High Income Dispersion," CESifo Working Paper Series 823, CESifo Group Munich.

  11. Kauppi, H., 1999. "Essays on Econometrics of Cointegration," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 84, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.

Articles

  1. Heikki Kauppi, 2012. "Predicting the Direction of the Fed's Target Rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, January.

    Cited by:

    1. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
    2. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    3. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    5. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
    6. Pauwels, Laurent L. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2016. "A note on the estimation of optimal weights for density forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 391-397.
    7. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  2. Heikki Kauppi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-791, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
    4. Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Vinson Pham, 2012. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: From Dynamic Quantile to Dynamic Binary Tests," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 33(1), pages 79-112.
    5. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
    6. António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU, 2011. "Backesting Value-at-Risk: From DQ (Dynamic Quantile) to DB (Dynamic Binary) Tests," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 262, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    9. Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2013. "New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1924, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012
      [The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012]
      ," MPRA Paper 60959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2014. "Currency Crises Early Warning Systems: Why They Should Be Dynamic," Post-Print hal-01385975, HAL.
    12. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    13. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    14. Ang, James & Smedema, Adam, 2011. "Financial flexibility: Do firms prepare for recession?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 774-787, June.
    15. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    16. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    17. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
    18. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    19. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    20. Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera & Wilmar Cabrera & Laura Capera & Dairo Estrada, "undated". "Un Mapa de Riesgo de Crédito para el Sistema Financiero Colombiano," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 068, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578.
    22. Moysiadis, Theodoros & Fokianos, Konstantinos, 2014. "On binary and categorical time series models with feedback," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 209-228.
    23. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
    24. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    25. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    26. Dunsmuir, William T. M. & Scott, David J., 2015. "The glarma Package for Observation-Driven Time Series Regression of Counts," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i07).
    27. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    28. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    29. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    30. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    31. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland : estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
    32. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
    33. James W. Taylor & Keming Yu, 2016. "Using auto-regressive logit models to forecast the exceedance probability for financial risk management," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1069-1092, October.
    34. Romano, A.A. & Scandurra, G. & Carfora, A., 2015. "Probabilities to adopt feed in tariff conditioned to economic transition: A scenario analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 988-997.
    35. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    36. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    37. Freitag L., 2014. "Procyclicality and path dependence of sovereign credit ratings: The example of Europe," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    38. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Bertrand Candelon & Jameel Ahmed & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Working Papers 2014-409, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    40. Schreiber, Sven & Soldatenkova, Natalia, 2016. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 166-187.
    41. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
    42. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    43. Eichler Michael & Grothe Oliver & Tuerk Dennis & Manner Hans, 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    44. Ratcliff, Ryan, 2013. "The “probability of recession”: Evaluating probabilistic and non-probabilistic forecasts from probit models of U.S. recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 311-315.
    45. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    46. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    47. Vesna Bucevska, 2015. "Currency Crises in EU Candidate Countries: An Early Warning System Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 493-510, September.
    48. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    49. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    50. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Pönkä, Harri, 2015. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," MPRA Paper 68330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    53. Ginker, Tim & Lieberman, Offer, 2017. "Robustness of binary choice models to conditional heteroscedasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 130-134.
    54. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
    55. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    56. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    57. Charlotte Christiansen & Jonas Nygaard Eriksen & Stig V. Møller, 2013. "Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiments," CREATES Research Papers 2013-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    58. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    59. Davig, Troy A. & Smalter Hall, Aaron, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    60. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    61. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    62. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    63. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    64. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578, April.
    65. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    66. Patrick De lamirande & Jason Stevens, 2016. "Predicting events with an unidentified time horizon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 729-735.

  3. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgren, Mika, 2007. "Voting rules and budget allocation in the enlarged EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 693-706, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room in Explaining EU Budget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 38, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2014. "From Rome to Lisbon and Beyond: Member States' Power, Efficiency, and Proportionality in the EU Council of Ministers," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 4164, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room Explaining EU Bydget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 1161, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Diego Varela & Javier Prado-Dominguez, 2012. "Negotiating the Lisbon Treaty: Redistribution, Efficiency and Power Indices," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 107-124, July.
    5. Zaporozhets, Vera & García-Valiñas, María & Kurz, Sascha, 2016. "Key drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-70.
    6. Kaniovski, Serguei & Mueller, Dennis C., 2011. "How representative is the European Union Parliament?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 61-74, March.
    7. Harald Badinger & Monika Mühlböck & Elisabeth Nindl & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2013. "Theoretical vs. Empirical Power Indices: Do Preferences Matter?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp153, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    8. László Á. Kóczy, 2010. "Strategic Aspects of the 1995 and 2004 EU Enlargements," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 267-277, May.
    9. J. Alonso-Meijide & C. Bowles & M. Holler & S. Napel, 2009. "Monotonicity of power in games with a priori unions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 17-37, January.
    10. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2009. "The Excess Power Puzzle of the EU Budget," CEPR Discussion Papers 7220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Loek Groot & Erik Zonneveld, 2013. "European Union Budget Contributions and Expenditures: A Lorenz Curve Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 649-666, July.
    12. García-Valiñas, Maria A. & Zaporozhets, Vera, 2015. "Key-drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," TSE Working Papers 15-548, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Mika Widgrén, 2008. "The Impact of Council's Internal Decision-Making Rules on the Future EU," Discussion Papers 26, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    14. Vera Zaporozhets & Mar'ia Garc'ia-Vali~nas & Sascha Kurz, 2015. "Key drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," Papers 1512.01267, arXiv.org.
    15. Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "The Impact of Council Voting Rules on EU Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 1162, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

  4. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "What determines EU decision making? Needs, power or both?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 221-266, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Le Breton, Michel & Montero, Maria & Zaporozhets, Vera, 2012. "Voting Power in the EU Council of Ministers and Fair Decision Making in Distributive Politics," IDEI Working Papers 716, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    2. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room in Explaining EU Budget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 38, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    3. Michel Le Breton & Dominique Lepelley & Vincent Merlin, 2016. "Le Mécanisme Optimal de Vote au Sein du Conseil des Représentants d'un Système Fédéral," Working Papers hal-01452556, HAL.
    4. Kari E.O.Alho & Ville Kaitila & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation - New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Economics Working Papers 034, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    5. Peter Schmidt, 2016. "Internal migration and EU regional policy transfer payments: A panel data analysis for the EU-28 member countries," ERSA conference papers ersa16p172, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Peter Schmidt, 2014. "EU regional policy and its theoretical foundations revisited," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1560, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Michalis Drouvelis & Maria Montero & Martin Sefton, "undated". "Gaining Power through Enlargement: Strategic Foundations and Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/30, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Geller, Chris R. & Mustard, Jamie & Shahwan, Ranya, 2013. "Focused power: Experiments, the Shapley-Shubik power index, and focal points," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2014. "Monnet’s Error?," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 83, European Institute, LSE.
    10. Le Breton, Michel & Thomas, Alban & Zaporozhets, Vera, 2012. "Bargaining in River Basin Committees: Rules Versus Discretion," LERNA Working Papers 12.12.369, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    11. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Do Benevolent Aspects Have Room Explaining EU Bydget Receipts?," Discussion Papers 1161, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    12. Bodenstein, Thilo and Achim Kemmerling, 2012. "Ripples in a rising tide: Why some EU regions receive more structural funds than others," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, January.
    13. Diego Varela & Javier Prado-Dominguez, 2012. "Negotiating the Lisbon Treaty: Redistribution, Efficiency and Power Indices," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 107-124, July.
    14. Zaporozhets, Vera & García-Valiñas, María & Kurz, Sascha, 2016. "Key drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 57-70.
    15. Alho, Kari & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 7000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mika Widgrén, 2008. "The Impact of Council’s Internal Decision-Making Rules on the Future EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2195, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Fiona Hayes-Renshaw & Wim van Aken and Helen Wallace, 2005. "When and Why the Council of Ministers of the EU Votes Explicitly," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 25, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    18. Seelkopf, Laura & Yang, Hongyan, 2014. "European fiscal solidarity: An EU-wide optimal income tax approach," TranState Working Papers 185, University of Bremen, Collaborative Research Center 597: Transformations of the State.
    19. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2009. "The Excess Power Puzzle of the EU Budget," CEPR Discussion Papers 7220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Voting Rules and Budget Allocation in an Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Kauppi, Heikki & Widgren, Mika, 2007. "Voting rules and budget allocation in the enlarged EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 693-706, September.
    22. Loek Groot & Erik Zonneveld, 2013. "European Union Budget Contributions and Expenditures: A Lorenz Curve Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 649-666, July.
    23. García-Valiñas, Maria A. & Zaporozhets, Vera, 2015. "Key-drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," TSE Working Papers 15-548, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    24. Stefanie Bailer & Mikko Mattila & Gerald Schneider, 2015. "Money Makes the EU Go Round: The Objective Foundations of Conflict in the Council of Ministers," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 437-456, May.
    25. Beat Spirig & Rolf Weder, 2008. "To Wait or Not to Wait: Swiss EU-Membership as an Investment under Uncertainty," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(I), pages 85-114, March.
    26. Vera Zaporozhets & Mar'ia Garc'ia-Vali~nas & Sascha Kurz, 2015. "Key drivers of EU budget allocation: Does power matter?," Papers 1512.01267, arXiv.org.
    27. Baldwin, Richard & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "The Impact of Turkey's Membership on EU Voting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "The Impact of Council Voting Rules on EU Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 1162, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    29. Döpke, Jörg & Knabe, Andreas & Lang, Cornelia & Maschke, Philip, 2016. "Multidimensional Well-being and Regional Disparities in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    30. Changxia Ke & Florian Morath & Anthony Newell & Lionel Page, 2016. "Too big to prevail: Coalition formations in the presence of a superpower," QuBE Working Papers 044, QUT Business School.
    31. František Turnovec, 2007. "New Measure of Voting Power," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 04-14, March.
    32. Michel Le Breton & Dominique Lepelley & Antonin Macé & Vincent Merlin, 2017. "Le Mécanisme Optimal de Vote au Sein du Conseil des Représentants d'un Système Fédéral," Post-Print hal-01680778, HAL.
    33. Alban Thomas & Vera Zaporozhets, 2017. "Bargaining Over Environmental Budgets: A Political Economy Model with Application to French Water Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(2), pages 227-248, October.
    34. Massimo Bordignon & Simona Scabrosetti, 2016. "The Political Economy of Financing the EU budget," Working papers 42, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.

  5. Kauppi, Heikki, 2004. "On The Robustness Of Hypothesis Testing Based On Fully Modified Vector Autoregression When Some Roots Are Almost One," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 341-359, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Kwon, Dae-Heum & Koo, Won W., 2013. "Price Transmission Mechanism among Disaggregated Processing Stages of Food: Demand-Pull or Cost-Push?," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 35(5), January.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

Access and download statistics for all items

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 13 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-EEC: European Economics (6) 2005-08-13 2006-07-28 2008-04-29 2008-11-18 2009-01-17 2009-03-22. Author is listed
  2. NEP-GTH: Game Theory (5) 2005-08-13 2006-07-28 2008-04-29 2009-01-17 2009-03-22. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CDM: Collective Decision-Making (4) 2006-07-28 2008-11-18 2009-01-17 2009-03-22
  4. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (3) 2004-03-22 2004-12-12 2009-01-17
  5. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (2) 2009-01-17 2010-06-26
  6. NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (2) 2003-10-20 2009-07-11
  7. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (1) 2010-06-26
  8. NEP-DEV: Development (1) 2004-03-22
  9. NEP-LAB: Labour Economics (1) 2004-12-12
  10. NEP-POL: Positive Political Economics (1) 2006-07-28
  11. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2009-01-17
  12. NEP-TRA: Transition Economics (1) 2006-07-28

Corrections

All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. For general information on how to correct material on RePEc, see these instructions.

To update listings or check citations waiting for approval, Heikki Kauppi should log into the RePEc Author Service.

To make corrections to the bibliographic information of a particular item, find the technical contact on the abstract page of that item. There, details are also given on how to add or correct references and citations.

To link different versions of the same work, where versions have a different title, use this form. Note that if the versions have a very similar title and are in the author's profile, the links will usually be created automatically.

Please note that most corrections can take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.