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Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen bis 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Huber
  • Ulrike Huemer

    (WIFO)

  • Kurt Kratena
  • Helmut Mahringer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Mit dem Strukturwandel verändern sich die Tätigkeitsprofile und die nachgefragten Qualifikationen in einer Volkswirtschaft. Der Arbeitsmarkt passt sich an diese neuen Anforderungen aber nur allmählich an. Vor diesem Hintergrund können mittelfristige Prognosen der Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften die frühzeitige Erkennung des künftigen Qualifikationsbedarfs erleichtern und damit individuelle sowie politische Planungsprozesse unterstützen. Methodisch basiert die Prognose der Beschäftigungsentwicklung nach Berufen und Branchen bis 2010 auf einem sektoralen ökonometrischen Modell der österreichischen Wirtschaft und einem Berufsprognosemodell. Die Schätzung der Beschäftigung für 34 Branchengrupppen und 57 Berufsgruppen zeigt, dass der Dienstleistungssektor weiterhin die Triebfeder des Beschäftigungswachstums sein wird (insbesondere unternehmensbezogene Dienstleistungen, Gesundheits- und Sozialbereich). Auch in der Berufslandschaft ist ein Trend zur Tertiärisierung zu beobachten, der Dienstleistungsberufe und Berufe mit Kundenkontakt begünstigt. Zudem steigt die Nachfrage nach höherqualifizierter Berufsausbildung deutlich, aber auch jene im Bereich der Hilfstätigkeiten im Dienstleistungsbereich.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Huber & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer, 2006. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen bis 2010," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 26490, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:26490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Fritz & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer & Nora Prean & Gerhard Streicher, 2008. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2006 bis 2012," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31985, February.
    2. Gács, János & Bíró, Anikó, 2013. "A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata. Áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról [International experience in forecasting labour markets. Overview of quantitative me," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 134-163.

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