IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/31985.html

Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2006 bis 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Fritz
  • Ulrike Huemer

    (WIFO)

  • Kurt Kratena

    (WIFO)

  • Helmut Mahringer

    (WIFO)

  • Nora Prean

    (WIFO)

  • Gerhard Streicher

Abstract

Als Basis für eine mittelfristige Schätzung des Qualifizierungsbedarfs erarbeitet das WIFO regelmäßig Prognosen der Beschäftigungsentwicklung nach Berufsgruppen, Branchen und Geschlecht. Dazu wurde eine modellgestützte Prognoseinfrastruktur aufgebaut. Die aktuelle Berechnung deckt den Zeitraum 2006 bis 2012 ab und bietet erstmals detaillierte Prognosen (23 Branchengruppen und 27 Berufsgruppen) auch auf Ebene der 9 Bundesländer. Dabei zeigt sich bei einem Wachstum der Gesamtbeschäftigung von knapp 1% pro Jahr ein deutlicher Trend zu höheren Qualifikationsanforderungen und zu dienstleistungs- und kundenorientierten Tätigkeiten. Während einfache Tätigkeiten in der Sachgüterproduktion an Bedeutung verlieren, wächst die Nachfrage nach Hilfstätigkeiten im Dienstleistungsbereich.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Fritz & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer & Nora Prean & Gerhard Streicher, 2008. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen 2006 bis 2012," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31985, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:31985
    Note: With English abstract.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/31985
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kurt Kratena & Gerold Zakarias, 2001. "MULTIMAC IV: A Disaggregated Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 160, WIFO.
    2. Calmfors, Lars & Lang, Harald, 1995. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Programmes in a Union Wage-Setting Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 601-619, May.
    3. Peter Huber & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer, 2006. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen bis 2010," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 26490, October.
    4. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kåre Johansen, 2002. "Regional Wage Curves Empirical Evidence from Norway," Working Paper Series 0302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    2. Peter Huber & Ulrike Huemer & Kurt Kratena & Helmut Mahringer, 2006. "Mittelfristige Beschäftigungsprognose für Österreich. Berufliche und sektorale Veränderungen bis 2010," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 26490, October.
    3. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    4. Mohamed Amara & Hatem Jemmali, 2018. "Deciphering the Relationship Between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 313-331, January.
    5. Ather Maqsood Ahmed & Ismail Sirageldin, 1993. "Socio-economic Determinants of Labour Mobility in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 139-157.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:5:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Anselem C. Nweke, 2019. "Rural-Urban Migration in Nigeria, Implication on the Development of the Society: Anambra State as the Focus of the Study," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 209-216, December.
    8. Albertini, Julien & Terriau, Anthony, 2019. "Informality over the life-cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 182-202.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Migration and adjustment to shocks in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 23-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Dehai Liu & Hongyi Li & Weiguo Wang & Chuang Zhou, 2015. "Scenario forecast model of long term trends in rural labor transfer based on evolutionary games," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 649-670, July.
    11. José Abraham López Machuca & Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, 2017. "Salarios, desempleo y productividad laboral en la industria manufacturera mexicana. (Wage, Unemployment and Labor Productivity in the Mexican Manufacturing Industry)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 185-228, October.
    12. Atsede Desta Tegegne & Marianne Penker, 2016. "Determinants of rural out-migration in Ethiopia: Who stays and who goes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(34), pages 1011-1044.
    13. Arup Mitra, 2010. "Migration, Livelihood and Well-being: Evidence from Indian City Slums," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1371-1390, June.
    14. Brian McCaig & Nina Pavcnik, 2015. "Informal Employment in a Growing and Globalizing Low-Income Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 545-550, May.
    15. Ziderman, Adrian, 1989. "Payroll taxes for financing training in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 141, The World Bank.
    16. Elena Vakulenko, 2019. "Motives for internal migration in Russia: what has changed in recent years?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 113-138.
    17. Dieter Gstach & Thomas Grandner, 2000. "Restricted immigration in a two-sector economy," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(3), pages 404-416, August.
    18. Tineke Fokkema & Eralba Cela & Elena Ambrosetti, 2013. "Giving from the Heart or from the Ego? Motives behind Remittances of the Second Generation in Europe," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 539-572, September.
    19. Peter Huber, 2003. "Quantity Adjustments in Candidate Countries Regional Labour Markets," ERSA conference papers ersa03p239, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Cosmin Enache & Ciprian Pânzaru, 2012. "Romanian Migration Flows In European Countries: Does Social Security Matter?," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(14), pages 1-17.
    21. Sarbajit Chaudhuri, 2004. "International Migration of Skilled and Unskilled Labour, Welfare and Skilled-unskilled Wage Inequality: a Simple Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 726-741.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:31985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.