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Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful for Developing Monetary Policy Strategy in Egypt?

Author

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  • Ahmed Hachicha

    (Faculty of Management and Economics Sciences, 4 Airport Road, 3018 Sfax, Tunisia)

  • Cheng-Few Lee

    (Department of Finance, School of Business, Rutgers University, 94 Rockafeller Road, NJ 08854, USA)

Abstract

On the basis of SVAR models of monetary policy in Egypt for the period December 1976–May 2006, our paper explores a new empirical assessment for the interest rate channel in correcting trouble in the Egyptian economy by imposing contemporaneous and long run restrictions. It appears that after a monetary policy expansion, output is stable in the first period, rises temporarily reaching the baseline att = 40, and the global monetary aggregate rises but not significantly. In addition, the price level rises with great difficulties in response to a negative interest rate shock to the global liquidity aggregate. The excess of money supply has a transitory effect on the Egyptian output but it causes inflation pressures.SVAR Blanchard and Quah (1989) estimation reveals contradictory results to the previous findings. Last but certainly not least, this means that the effect of bank lending and the interest rate channels on the economy are limited in time.The paper shows that the transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate channel has become weak in the short run but more important in the long run. Nonetheless, the bank lending channel through the commercial bank lending is not a potent monetary transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Hachicha & Cheng-Few Lee, 2009. "Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful for Developing Monetary Policy Strategy in Egypt?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 509-527.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:12:y:2009:i:03:n:s0219091509001721
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091509001721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 32-82, September.
    2. Hafedh Bouakez & Emanuela Cardia & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2009. "The Transmission Of Monetary Policy In A Multisector Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1243-1266, November.
    3. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642.
    4. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ashima Goyal & Rajeswari Sengupta & Akhilesh Verma, 2019. "External debt financing and macroeconomic instability in emerging market economies," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; bank lending channel; interest rate channel; Egyptian economy; SVAR models; contemporaneous restrictions; long run restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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